Moisture Origin and Transport for Extreme Precipitation over Indonesia’s New Capital City, Nusantara in August 2021

Purwaningsih, Anis; Lubis, Sandro W.; Hermawan, Eddy; Andarini, Dita Fatria; Harjana, Teguh; Ratri, Dian Nur; Ridho, Ainur; Risyanto,; Sujalu, Akas Pinaringan

doi:10.3390/atmos13091391

Cited by 15 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Our results indicate a significant regional‐scale influence of the BSISO on summer extreme precipitation events in Indonesia. This outcome is consistent with a recent study showing the role of BSISO in triggering an extreme rainfall event over Nusantara, East Borneo, Indonesia, in August by modulating moisture transport from the South China Sea towards this region (Purwaningsih et al ., 2022). Despite the significant influence of the BSISO on extreme rainfall, other atmospheric processes can interact with and influence BSISO‐induced precipitation extremes in Indonesia during boreal summer.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on precipitation extremes in Indonesia

Muhammad

Lubis

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The relationship between boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) and precipitation extremes over Indonesia is investigated using observational datasets from 30 years of rain gauge measurements and the gridded Asian Precipitation-Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources from 1998 to 2015. The results indicate that the frequency of daily extreme precipitation events in Indonesia (defined as total precipitation above the 95th percentile) during extended boreal summer (May-August) is significantly modulated by BSISO, especially over the western and northern regions. Under the influences of BSISO1, the probability of the precipitation extremes over Sumatra and Borneo increases by 20-120% (relative to the seasonal probability) during phases 1-3 and approximately 50-80% over the eastern part of Borneo and Sulawesi during phase 4. Under BSISO2, the probability of the extremes increases up to 40% over Sumatra during phases 1 and 2 and up to 140% over Borneo and Sulawesi during phases 2 and 3. The increase in the probability of extreme summer precipitation is associated with enhanced large-scale moisture flux convergence and upward moisture transport induced by the active phases of BSISO. These results provide potential information for medium-to extended-range predictions of summer precipitation extremes in Indonesia.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on precipitation extremes in Indonesia

Muhammad

Lubis

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Purwaningsih et al. (2022) and Whitehall et al. (2015) used graph theory to model objects from time t to time t + n as graph nodes at levels 0– n , and the inverse of area overlap as edges cost connecting one node (object) to next.…”

Section: Tracking In Imergmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using the cross-correlation method, Carvalho and Jones (2001) related objects in consecutive time steps to relate them across time. Purwaningsih et al (2022) and Whitehall et al (2015) used graph theory to model objects from time t to time t + n as graph nodes at levels 0-n, and the inverse of area overlap as edges cost connecting one node (object) to next. The convective systems are objects associated through the shortest path from a parent node to a leaf node through edges with minimum cost, that is, the largest overlapping area.…”

Section: Survey Of Tracking Algorithmsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tracking Mesoscale Convective Systems in IMERG and Regional Variability of Their Properties in the Tropics

Rajagopal,

Russell,

Skok

et al. 2023

JGR Atmospheres

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Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) constitute only a fraction of convective systems in the tropics but significantly impact tropical weather and global climate. Early studies used satellite infrared (IR) data to track MCSs and study their properties but only for a short period due to computing limitations. Though valuable, the IR brightness temperature (Tb)‐derived precipitation properties have biases. The recent availability of Integrated Multi‐satEllite Retrieval for Global (IMERG) precipitation mission rainfall data of lesser bias than IR Tb‐based rainfall and access to high‐performance computers motivated us to track MCSs over global tropics for 10 years, using the Forward in Time (FiT) algorithm. Though IMERG is advantageous, it poses challenges to tracking MCSs due to convective systems connected by light rain areas and resolution differences between contributing passive microwave sensors. The precipitation field is smoothed and normalized to overcome these problems; then, the FiT algorithm identifies MCSs and tracks them. Our results show that MCSs contribute ∼70% of annual precipitation, though they are only ∼7% of all tracked systems. MCSs occur more often over the Amazon basin and Maritime Continent than in central Africa, known for high thunderstorm frequency, highlighting the contrasting convective regimes. The large, long‐lived, and intensely precipitating MCSs occur more often over the ocean than land, except for the Amazon basin. Fast‐moving MCSs often occur over West Africa, the Amazon basin, and the western Pacific, whereas slow‐moving MCSs are common over Colombia and the Maritime Continent.

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“…Rainfall extremes are a major hazard experienced across the country's numerous islands. This can lead to floods and landslides (Hai et al ., 2017; Hermawan et al ., 2022; Purwaningsih et al ., 2022), with devastating impacts on local populations. Convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) are tropical weather systems that travel eastward along the equatorial waveguide, organising convection, forming an important mode of equatorial rainfall variability in the MC, and influencing precipitation extremes (van der Linden et al ., 2016; Ferrett et al ., 2020; Lubis and Respati, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme precipitation at Padang, Sumatra triggered by convectively coupled Kelvin waves

Senior,

Matthews,

Webber

et al. 2023

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) are tropical weather systems that travel eastward along the equatorial waveguide and have previously been linked to 90% of flooding events in Sumatra, Indonesia. Here, the processes through which CCKWs influence convection to produce extreme precipitation are investigated, with a focus on Padang, a city on the west coast of Sumatra. Extreme precipitation days at Padang, defined as days when the daily total precipitation exceeds the percentile, are found to be 59% more likely to occur given the presence of a CCKW. We find that CCKWs modulate the diurnal cycle to produce extreme precipitation. This is achieved firstly through providing low‐level moisture and convergence that acts to couple the Kelvin wave to the convection. Secondly, the CCKW acts to displace the convergence zone towards Padang, such that it experiences rainfall that persists throughout the night and peaks the following day in the early evening. We examine the case study of a CCKW that passed over Padang on August 21, 2017, bringing extreme precipitation that led to flooding in the West Sumatra region, recording a maximum daily accumulated rainfall of 137 mm. This case study showed remarkably similar characteristics in its propagation, structure, and precipitation patterns to composite studies of CCKWs. The performance of a suite of convection‐permitting configurations of the UK Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), embedded within a parameterised convection global model, in forecasting this CCKW is evaluated. In general, all configurations of the model capture this event reasonably well. We find that extending the western boundary of the high‐resolution model domain from 90°E to 65°E leads to a significantly improved forecast, as the CCKW development over the Indian Ocean is captured more accurately by the high‐resolution nested model, compared with the lower‐resolution global driving model.

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Moisture Origin and Transport for Extreme Precipitation over Indonesia’s New Capital City, Nusantara in August 2021

Cited by 15 publications

References 51 publications

Impacts of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on precipitation extremes in Indonesia

Impacts of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on precipitation extremes in Indonesia

Tracking Mesoscale Convective Systems in IMERG and Regional Variability of Their Properties in the Tropics

Extreme precipitation at Padang, Sumatra triggered by convectively coupled Kelvin waves

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