Moisture availability limits subalpine tree establishment

Andrus, Robert A.; Harvey, Brian; Rodman, Kyle C.; Hart, Sarah J.; Veblen, Thomas T.

doi:10.1002/ecy.2134

Cited by 109 publications

(105 citation statements)

References 48 publications

(65 reference statements)

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“…, Andrus et al. ). Furthermore, several studies showed that interactions between temperature and precipitation leading to dry conditions limit seedling establishment and tree species distribution shifts in the Rocky Mountains (Hessl and Baker , Lloyd and Graumlich , Elliott , Moyes et al.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past the climate optimum: Recruitment is declining at the world's highest juniper shrublines on the Tibetan Plateau

Liang

Wang

et al. 2019

Ecology

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Alpine biomes are climate change hotspots, and treeline dynamics in particular have received much attention as visible evidence of climate‐induced shifts in species distributions. Comparatively little is known, however, about the effects of climate change on alpine shrubline dynamics. Here, we reconstruct decadally resolved shrub recruitment history (age structure) through the combination of field surveys and dendroecology methods at the world's highest juniper (Juniperus pingii var. wilsonii) shrublines on the south‐central Tibetan Plateau. A total of 1,899 shrubs were surveyed at 12 plots located in four regions along an east‐to‐west declining precipitation gradient. We detected synchronous recruitment with 9 out of 12 plots showing a gradual increase from 1600 to 1900, a peak at 1900–1940, and a subsequent decrease from the 1930s onward. Shrub recruitment was significantly and positively correlated with reconstructed summer temperature from 1600 to 1940, whereas it was negatively associated with temperature in recent decades (1930–2000). Recruitment was also positively correlated with precipitation, except in the 1780–1830 period, when a trend toward wetter climate conditions began. Warming‐induced drought limitation has likely reduced the recruitment potential of alpine juniper shrubs in recent decades. Ongoing warming without a simultaneous increase in precipitation is expected to further impair recruitment at the world's highest juniper shrublines and alter the dynamics and competitive balance between woody plant species throughout these alpine biomes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past the climate optimum: Recruitment is declining at the world's highest juniper shrublines on the Tibetan Plateau

Liang

Wang

et al. 2019

Ecology

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“…Andrus et al. () similarly found the availability of cool temperatures and snowpack played a critical role in driving soil moisture and episodic establishment of spruce and fir species in the southern Rocky Mountains. Structural equation modeling of our data supports this hypothesis, indicating significant indirect effects of temperature through its effect on snowpack and soil moisture (Supporting Information Figure S2).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adapting management to a changing world: Warm temperatures, dry soil, and interannual variability limit restoration success of a dominant woody shrub in temperate drylands

Shriver

Andrews

Pilliod

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

131

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Restoration and rehabilitation of native vegetation in dryland ecosystems, which encompass over 40% of terrestrial ecosystems, is a common challenge that continues to grow as wildfire and biological invasions transform dryland plant communities. The difficulty in part stems from low and variable precipitation, combined with limited understanding about how weather conditions influence restoration outcomes, and increasing recognition that one-time seeding approaches can fail if they do not occur during appropriate plant establishment conditions. The sagebrush biome, which once covered over 620,000 km of western North America, is a prime example of a pressing dryland restoration challenge for which restoration success has been variable. We analyzed field data on Artemisia tridentata (big sagebrush) restoration collected at 771 plots in 177 wildfire sites across its western range, and used process-based ecohydrological modeling to identify factors leading to its establishment. Our results indicate big sagebrush occurrence is most strongly associated with relatively cool temperatures and wet soils in the first spring after seeding. In particular, the amount of winter snowpack, but not total precipitation, helped explain the availability of spring soil moisture and restoration success. We also find considerable interannual variability in the probability of sagebrush establishment. Adaptive management strategies that target seeding during cool, wet years or mitigate effects of variability through repeated seeding may improve the likelihood of successful restoration in dryland ecosystems. Given consistent projections of increasing temperatures, declining snowpack, and increasing weather variability throughout midlatitude drylands, weather-centric adaptive management approaches to restoration will be increasingly important for dryland restoration success.

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“…The combination of increased tree mortality from fire and less tree recruitment due to less‐favorable climate conditions (Andrus et al. , Stevens‐Rumann et al. ) is likely to result in shifts in forest extent and composition (Enright et al.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate will increasingly determine post‐fire tree regeneration success in low‐elevation forests, Northern Rockies,USA

et al. 2019

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Climate change is expected to cause widespread shifts in the distribution and abundance of plant species through direct impacts on mortality, regeneration, and survival. At landscape scales, climate impacts will be strongly mediated by disturbances, such as wildfire, which catalyze shifts in species distributions through widespread mortality and by shaping the post-disturbance environment. We examined the potential for regional shifts in low-elevation tree species in response to wildfire and climate warming in low-elevation, dry mixed-conifer forests of the northern Rocky Mountains, USA. We analyzed interactions among climate and wildfire on post-fire tree seedling regeneration 5-13 yr post-fire at 177 sites burned in 21 large wildfires during two years with widespread regional burning. We used generalized additive mixed models to quantify how the density of Douglas-fir and ponderosa pine seedlings varied as a function of climate normals (30-yr mean temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration) and fire (tree survivorship, burn severity, and seed source availability). Mean summer temperature was the most important predictor of post-fire seedling densities for both ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir. Seed availability was also important in determining Douglas-fir regeneration. As mean summer temperature continues to increase, however, seed availability will become less important for determining post-fire regeneration. Above a mean summer temperature of 17°C, Douglas-fir regeneration is predicted to be minimal regardless of how close a seed source is to a site. The majority (82%) of our sampled sites are predicted to exceed a mean summer temperature of 17°C by mid-century, suggesting significant declines in seedling densities and potential forest loss. Our results highlight mechanisms linking climate change to shifts in the distribution of two widely dominant tree species in western North America. Under a warming climate, we expect post-fire tree regeneration in these low-elevation forests to become increasingly unsuccessful. Such widespread regeneration failures would have important implications for ecosystem processes and forest resilience, particularly as wildfires increase in response to climate warming.

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Moisture availability limits subalpine tree establishment

Cited by 109 publications

References 48 publications

Past the climate optimum: Recruitment is declining at the world's highest juniper shrublines on the Tibetan Plateau

Past the climate optimum: Recruitment is declining at the world's highest juniper shrublines on the Tibetan Plateau

Adapting management to a changing world: Warm temperatures, dry soil, and interannual variability limit restoration success of a dominant woody shrub in temperate drylands

Climate will increasingly determine post‐fire tree regeneration success in low‐elevation forests, Northern Rockies,USA

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