Moffitt Revisited: Delinquent and Criminal Career Paths in the 1958 Philadelphia Birth Cohort

Abstract

Since the emergence of Moffitt's typology of criminal trajectories in 1993, considerable research has focused on whether distinct developmental, criminal paths exist and their value as a theoretical model. Moffitt's typology, however, is based on very limited data, with a small, non-representative sample. Either of these aspects of Moffitt's work and the many replications, could be responsible for the inconsistent results reported in the literature. This study used the data from 1958 Philadelphia Birth Cohort in an effort to replicate Moffitt's work and extend the empirical results from the replications. The 1958 Birth Cohort is extremely large [27,160 cases, with 13,160 males and 14,000 females]. The data cover the entire criminal careers of the cohort, from onset, as early as age seven, up to the 27th birthday. This longitudinal cohort design permits the examination of offense onset, progression, escalation and desistance. Detailed offense data are available thus facilitating the testing of many of Moffitt's assertions. We developed and tested four juvenile and adult career paths: nonoffender, limited, frequent, and chronic. Across the juvenile paths, age of first offense is significantly younger, average severity of the offense increases, as does the share of SellinWolfgang Index Offenses. The juvenile paths were significant predictors of the corresponding adult paths.

Utilizing Alternate Models for Analyzing Count Outcomes

“…This study utilizes data from the 1958 Philadelphia Birth Cohort study (see Carkin & Tracy, 2015; Tracy & Kempf-Leonard, 1996; Tracy, Wolfgang, & Figlio, 1990). The use of the 1958 Philadelphia Birth Cohort is well suited to the present methodological inquiry.…”

“…That is, a subject already classified as having one or more crimes may be more likely to continue a criminal career as opposed to the likelihood that a non-offender will begin a career in crime. This can occur as a function of individual propensity to offend (Carkin, 2014; Tracy & Kempf-Leonard, 1996) or due to increased attention from criminal justice actors once some violation behaviors have been observed (Rydberg & Grommon, 2016). Although overdispersed Poisson can address some issues pertaining to overdispersion, violations of the independence assumption are left unchecked.…”

Prediction of Adult Criminal Careers from Early Delinquency Offense Characteristics in the 1958 Philadelphia Birth Cohort

“…Например, широко известна классическая работа Moffitt [20], породившая целую серию исследований траектории жизненного пути у взрослых (см. [21]). Кроме того, было подтверждено влияние предыдущей преступной деятельности на последующую [22], в том числе на примере когорты 1958 года рождения [8].…”

“…Исследования в этой области касаются в основном общих параметров криминальной карьеры, но не особенностей криминального поведения в начале преступной деятельности. Это касается в первую очередь работы Tracy и Kempf-Leonard [8], в которой анализируется весь спектр стандартных параметров криминальной карьеры по указанной базе данных [21]. Таким образом, мы ограничим обзор предыдущих исследований только теми работами, в которых затрагиваются специфические параметры преступной деятельности, используемые в нашей работе.…”