Modulation of the Westerly and Easterly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Phases on the Connection between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation

Song, Lei; Wu, Renguang

doi:10.3390/atmos11020175

Cited by 8 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…Perhaps most striking is the enhanced MJO impact and increased prediction skill following active MJO events during WQBO over the North Atlantic in weeks 3-4 in both ECMWF and NCEP. This result is supported by recent research showing that the North Atlantic Oscillation and MJO connection is stronger during WQBO (Feng and Lin, 2019;Song and Wu, 2020). Furthermore, enhanced prediction skill of atmospheric rivers over Alaska is also found following active MJOs during WQBO (Baggett et al, 2017).…”

Section: Regional Prediction Skillsupporting

confidence: 82%

“…This result is supported by a growing body of work suggesting the importance of WQBO on MJO teleconnections. For example, recent work has shown that the North Atlantic Oscillation and MJO relationship are stronger during WQBO (Feng and Lin, 2019;Song and Wu, 2020), and prediction skill of atmospheric rivers over Alaska is enhanced following WQBO-MJO (Baggett et al, 2017). Finally, while strong ENSO events were removed from our analysis in an attempt to separate the effects of the QBO from those of ENSO, an ENSO influence may still remain.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To do this, we calculate the daily climatology for each lead time independently. Since the ECMWF model is not initialized daily, two (forward-and backward-moving) 31 d running means are applied to the climatology at all lead times to reduce noise, following Sun et al (2018). These smoothed lead-dependent daily climatologies are then subtracted from the z500 field of the corresponding model to remove the annual cycle.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Subseasonal midlatitude prediction skill following Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Madden–Julian Oscillation activity

Mayer

Barnes

2020

Weather Clim. Dynam.

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Abstract. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is known to force extratropical weather days to weeks following an MJO event through excitation of stationary Rossby waves, also referred to as tropical–extratropical teleconnections. Prior research has demonstrated that this tropically forced midlatitude response leads to increased prediction skill on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales. Furthermore, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) has been shown to possibly alter these teleconnections through modulation of the MJO itself and the atmospheric basic state upon which the Rossby waves propagate. This implies that the MJO–QBO relationship may affect midlatitude circulation prediction skill on S2S timescales. In this study, we quantify midlatitude circulation sensitivity and prediction skill following active MJOs and QBOs across the Northern Hemisphere on S2S timescales through an examination of the 500 hPa geopotential height field. First, a comparison of the spatial distribution of Northern Hemisphere sensitivity to the MJO during different QBO phases is performed for European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) hindcasts. Secondly, differences in prediction skill in ECMWF and NCEP hindcasts are quantified following MJO–QBO activity. In both hindcast systems, we find that regions across the Pacific, North America, and the Atlantic demonstrate an enhanced MJO impact on prediction skill during strong QBO periods with lead times of 1–4 weeks compared to MJO events during neutral QBO periods.

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Section: Regional Prediction Skillsupporting

confidence: 82%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Subseasonal midlatitude prediction skill following Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Madden–Julian Oscillation activity

Mayer

Barnes

2020

Weather Clim. Dynam.

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“…Weakening of stratospheric polar vortex related to SSW events could also affect upper levels up to the ionosphere including its chemical composition (Funke et al, 2017;Pedatella et al, 2018). Meanwhile, the Arctic stratosphere acts as a pathway linking the extratropical surface climate to tropical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (e.g., Butler et al, 2014;Cagnazzo and Manzini, 2009;Domeisen et al, 2019;Fletcher and Cassou, 2015;Hurwitz et al, 2014;Ineson and Scaife, 2009;Toniazzo and Scaife, 2006;Zhou et al, 2020), Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) ( Barnes et al, 2019;Song and Wu, 2020), Arctic sea ice change (e.g., De and Wu, 2019;Hell et al, 2020;Kim and Son, 2020;Overland and Wang, 2019), and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) (Hardiman et al, 2020). However, not every Arctic stratospheric polar vortex strengthening or weakening event affects the troposphere, whose state can also play an important role (Domeisen et al, 2020a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Longitudinal peculiarities of planetary waves-zonal flow interaction and its role in stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling

Wei

Chen

Vargin

2021

Preprint

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The three-dimensional (3D) planetary wave analysis provides more regionalized information on stratospheric-tropospheric dynamic interactions. The upward wave flux from the troposphere to the stratosphere is maximized above north-eastern Eurasia, while the downward flux is mainly over the North America and North Atlantic (NANA) region, which is much stronger in mid and late winter. This distribution is determined by the wave-wave interaction between the different wavenumbers of planetary waves, especially between wavenumber 1 and wavenumber 2. The upward wave flux anomalies in early winter are negatively correlated with the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). In the mid and late winter months, the strength of the SPV is positively correlated with the first mode of 3D wave flux and has a leading relationship of approximately one month. The stronger SPV corresponds to a stronger upward wave flux above northern Eurasia and stronger downward flux over the NANA region. The interannual variation in wave flux in early winter is closely associated with the Scandinavian wave train pattern. In contrast, the wave flux variation is related to the circulation anomaly corresponding to Arctic Oscillation in mid and late winter, which causes climate anomalies across the Northern Hemisphere, especially coherent temperature changes in northern Europe, eastern United States and northeastern China.

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“…However, the study of Garfinkel and Hartmann (2010) showed that the QBO modifies the teleconnections between the tropics and extratropics through both direct and indirect (background flow related) processes. Subsequent studies examined the influence of the QBO on the MJO-NAO teleconnection (Feng & Lin, 2019;Song & Wu, 2020). During extended winters, from November to April, after the occurrence of MJO phases 3 and 7, the NAO in both phases was found to have a larger amplitude in WQBO years than in EQBO years (Feng & Lin, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modulation of the MJO-Related Teleconnection by the QBO in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Models

Feng

Lin

2021

Atmosphere-Ocean

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It was found in previous observational studies that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) can modulate the teleconnection over the Atlantic basin related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). In this study, we assess the modulation of the MJO-related teleconnection by the QBO in the operational models that participated in the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction (S2S) project of the World Climate Research Programme/World Weather Research Programme. The enhancement of the positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) after the occurrence of MJO phase 3, which corresponds to enhanced convection in the equatorial Indian Ocean and reduced convection in the tropical western Pacific, under westerly QBO (WQBO) conditions is seen to be captured by most S2S models but, not unexpectedly, to different degrees. In contrast, the enhancement of the NAO after the occurrence of MJO phase 7, when tropical convection anomalies have the opposite signs compared with MJO phase 3, under WQBO conditions is not reproduced in most S2S models. Under easterly QBO (EQBO) conditions, however, some S2S models can reproduce a significant negative NAO after the occurrence of MJO phase 7 but not a positive NAO after the occurrence of MJO phase 3. The results indicate that although the S2S models are able to predict a reasonable MJO up to around three weeks, representing the impact of the QBO on the extratropical teleconnection of the MJO remains challenging.RÉSUMÉ [Traduit par la rédaction] Des études observationnelles antérieures ont révélé que l'oscillation quasibiennale (QBO) peut moduler la téléconnexion sur le bassin atlantique liée à l'oscillation Madden-Julian (MJO). Dans cette étude, nous évaluons la modulation de la téléconnexion liée à la MJO par la QBO dans les modèles opérationnels qui ont participé au projet de prévision de sous-saison à saison (S2S) du Programme mondial de recherche sur le climat/Programme mondial de recherche sur la météorologie. Le renforcement de l'oscillation positive de l'Atlantique Nord (NAO) après l'apparition de la phase 3 de la MJO, qui correspond à une convection accrue dans l'océan Indien équatorial et à une convection réduite dans le Pacifique occidental tropical, dans des conditions de QBO d'ouest (WQBO), est capté par la plupart des modèles S2S mais, comme on pouvait s'y attendre, à des degrés différents. En revanche, le renforcement de la NAO après l'apparition de la phase 7 de la MJO, lorsque les anomalies de convection tropicale sont de signes opposés par rapport à la phase 3 de la MJO, dans des conditions de WQBO, n'est pas reproduit dans la plupart des modèles S2S. Cependant, dans des conditions de QBO oriental (EQBO), certains modèles S2S peuvent reproduire une NAO négative significative après l'apparition de la phase 7 de la MJO, mais pas une NAO positive après l'apparition de la phase 3 de la MJO. Les résultats indiquent que bien que les modèles S2S soient capables de prédire une MJO raisonnable jusqu'à environ trois semaines, la représentation de l'impact de la QBO sur la téléconnexion extratropic...

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Modulation of the Westerly and Easterly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Phases on the Connection between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation

Cited by 8 publications

References 50 publications

Subseasonal midlatitude prediction skill following Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Madden–Julian Oscillation activity

Subseasonal midlatitude prediction skill following Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Madden–Julian Oscillation activity

Longitudinal peculiarities of planetary waves-zonal flow interaction and its role in stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling

Modulation of the MJO-Related Teleconnection by the QBO in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Models

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