Modulation of the Occurrence of Heatwaves over the Euro-Mediterranean Region by the Intensity of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

Qasmi, Saïd; Sánchez-Gómez, Emilia; Ruprich‐Robert, Yohan; Boé, Julien; Cassou, Christophe

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-0982.1

Cited by 22 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…Also, for these regions, the Best10 summer temperature projections for the next 20 years exhibit a reduced uncertainty range compared to UNINIT40, where constraining the decadal variability systematically excludes those projection members with the smallest temperature increases. Summer climate in these regions has been shown to be related to the state of the North Atlantic Ocean (Hoerling et al., 2006; Hurrell, 1995; Krishnamurthy & Krishnamurthy, 2016; Qasmi et al., 2021; Zhang & Delworth, 2006), and the favoring of warmer summer temperatures is consistent with the preference of the constrained projections for a warm Subpolar North Atlantic.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 60%

Constraining Decadal Variability Yields Skillful Projections of Near‐Term Climate Change

Mahmood

Donat

Ortega

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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Targeted adaptation to near‐term climate change requires accurate, reliable, and actionable climate information for the next few decades. Climate projections simulate the response to radiative forcing, but are subject to substantial uncertainties due to internal variability. Decadal climate predictions aim to reduce this uncertainty by initializing the simulations using observations, but are typically limited to the next 10 years. Here, we use decadal predictions to constrain climate projections beyond the next decade and demonstrate that accounting for climate variability improves regional projections of 20‐year average temperatures. Applying this constraint to climate projections of the near future until 2035, summer temperatures over land regions in Asia and Africa tend to show stronger changes within the warming range simulated by the larger, unconstrained, ensemble—consistent with a warm phase in North Atlantic variability. This improved regional climate information can enable tailored adaptation to climate changes in the coming decades.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 60%

Constraining Decadal Variability Yields Skillful Projections of Near‐Term Climate Change

Mahmood

Donat

Ortega

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Climate projections from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and from CMIP6 (Eyring et al, 2016) corroborate the contribution of GHGs, with some models projecting an enhanced cooling over the WH (Dagan et al, 2020;Sigmond et al, 2020;Marshall et al, 2015), but with large uncertainties in the spatio-temporal structure and intensity of the cooling (Menary and Wood, 2018;Bellomo et al, 2021). Given the potential impact of the North Atlantic SSTs on the North hemisphere climate (Qasmi et al, 2021;Ren and Liu, 2021;Gervais et al, 2019Gervais et al, , 2020Karnauskas et al, 2021), it is important to investigate to what extent it is possible to reduce the uncertainty in the SST projections over the WH.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcings

Qasmi

2022

Preprint

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Abstract. Most of the North Atlantic ocean has warmed over the last decades, except a region located over the subpolar gyre, known as the North Atlantic warming hole, where sea surface temperature has in contrast decreased. Previous assessments have attributed part of this cooling to the anthropogenic forcings (aerosols and greenhouse gases) modulated by decadal internal variability. Here I use an innovative and proven statistical method which combines climate models and observations to confirm the anthropogenic role in the WH cooling, and to provide estimates of the contribution of a set of given external forcings. Furthermore, the method is able to reduce the uncertainty in the WH temperature over the historical period, but also in the future, with a decrease of 65 % in the short term, up to 50 % in the long term. A model evaluation validates the reliability of the obtained projections. In particular, the projections associated with a strong temperature increase over the warming hole are now excluded from the likely range obtained after applying the method.

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“…(2016) and Miao and Jiang (2021). Note that the CMIP6‐endorsed DCPP‐C project is specifically designed to explore the remote impacts of the AMV on global and regional variations in climate at decadal timescales (Boer et al ., 2016; Wu and Xin, 2019), which can effectively capture the decadal modulation of the AMV on the Eurasian climate (e.g., the Eurasian summer hydrological cycle, Nicolì et al ., 2020; the heatwaves over the Euro‐Mediterranean region, Qasmi et al ., 2021).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synergistic impacts of westerlies and monsoon on interdecadal variations of late spring precipitation over the southeastern extension of the Tibetan Plateau

Wang

Liu

Song

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Based on multiple long-term observational and reanalysis datasets, this study investigated the characteristics and physical mechanisms of the interdecadal variations in late spring (i.e., May) precipitation (LSP) over the southeastern extension of the Tibetan Plateau (SETP) since 1900. It was revealed that by and large, LSP over the SETP experienced interdecadal decrease during the period preceding 1927, 1962-1988, and 2004 onwards, but saw an increase during the periods of 1928-1961 and 1989-2003. The atmospheric circulations responsible for interdecadal variations in LSP over the SETP were also analysed. These analyses identified significant synergistic impacts of decreased mid-latitude upstream westerlies and increased low-latitude monsoonal southerlies over the Central North Bay of Bengal (CNBOB) on interdecadal variations in precipitation, suggesting striking interactions between extratropical eastward cold air and tropical northward warm/humid air. Further observational and modelling evidence suggested that Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was likely to be a salient oceanic driver for the interdecadal synergy between upstream westerlies and CNBOB monsoonal southerlies. The elevated sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the warm phase of the AMO could spark favourable local atmospheric anomalies, forcing an upper-tropospheric, planetary-scale teleconnection emanating from the east of the North Atlantic sector, which may serve as an effective bridge linking the remote AMO signal and the synergy between westerlies and monsoonal southerlies around the SETP on interdecadal timescales. Our findings provided new insights into the understanding of the synergistic roles of westerlies and monsoons in the modulation of interdecadal LSP over the SETP, prior to the peak Asian summer monsoon season.

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Modulation of the Occurrence of Heatwaves over the Euro-Mediterranean Region by the Intensity of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

Cited by 22 publications

References 68 publications

Constraining Decadal Variability Yields Skillful Projections of Near‐Term Climate Change

Constraining Decadal Variability Yields Skillful Projections of Near‐Term Climate Change

Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcings

Synergistic impacts of westerlies and monsoon on interdecadal variations of late spring precipitation over the southeastern extension of the Tibetan Plateau

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