Modulation of active-break spell of Indian summer monsoon by Madden Julian Oscillation

Abstract

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the major fluctuation in tropical weather on weekly to monthly time scale and a major driver of Indian summer monsoon (ISM). In this study, using Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) high resolution daily gridded rainfall data and Wheeler-Hendon MJO indices, the daily rainfall distribution over India associated with various phases of eastward propagating MJO was examined to understand the MJO-monsoon rainfall relationship. The present study reveal that the onset of break and active events over India and the duration of these events are strongly related to the phase and strength of the MJO. The break events were relatively better associated with the strong MJO phases than the active events. About 80% of the break events were found to be set in during the phases 1, 2, 7 and 8 of MJO with maximum during phase 1 (34%). On the other hand, about 58% of the active events were set in during the MJO phases 3-6 with maximum during phase 6 (21%). The results of this study indicate an opportunity for using the real time information and skillful prediction of MJO phases for the extended range prediction of break and active conditions.

High‐intensity rainfall over northeast India: Spatial pattern, short‐term fluctuations and associated multiscale oscillations

“…It is well established that ISO is very much modulated by MJO (Gadgil & Guruprasad, 1992; Krishnamurthy & Shukla, 2008; Lau & Chan, 1986; Pai et al, 2011; Rui & Wang, 1990; Singh & Bhatla, 2019; Yasunari, 1979, 1980). The flow patterns in Figure 8 closely resemble the anomalous flow when MJO is in phases 1 and 2 (Figure S2).…”

“…Some other studies concluded that MJOs have an impact on ISO (Gadgil & Guruprasad, 1992;Krishnamurthy & Shukla, 2008;Lau & Chan, 1986;Pai et al, 2011;Prajwal et al, 2022;Rui & Wang, 1990;Seetharam, 2008;Singh & Bhatla, 2019;Yasunari, 1979Yasunari, , 1980. Further, the quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO), which has been shown by many studies, is another wellknown phenomenon that influences the monsoon and regulates its active and break phases (Chen & Chen, 1993;Krishnamurti & Ardanuy, 1980).…”

Assessing Future Changes in Variability of Mainland Indochina Southwest Monsoon Rainfall

“…For the bulk of the population, agriculture is their main source of income, and monsoon rainfall is essential to this industry (Sharmila et al, 2013). Heavy rains during this time of year recharge groundwater, restore soil, and supply irrigation water (Singh & Bhatla, 2019). This is essential for rice farming, as it is the primary crop in Mainland Indochina and a signi cant source of revenue for several farmers (Thwe et al, 2019).…”

Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on the Arctic Oscillation Prediction in S2S Operational Models

“…The MJO, which is a large-scale ocean-atmosphere-coupled system accompanied by strong deep convection and the wind anomaly traveling eastwardly in the tropics (Yoneyama et al, 2013), can modulate the climate in the Northern Hemisphere (Madden and Julian, 1994;Zhang, 2005). Initiating over the Indian Ocean, the MJO affects active and break of the Indian summer monsoon spell (Singh and Bhatla, 2019;Yang and Huang, 2021). When the MJO travels eastwardly to the Maritime Continent, the local precipitation is dominated by MJO convection (Vincent and Lane, 2018).…”