Modular global uncertainty analysis of event-driven indicators of system’s availability

Stano, Paweł Mirosław; Spirzewski, Michał

doi:10.1201/9781351174664-331

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…This work was a part of a research effort, which had the ultimate goal to compare a more traditional uncertainty analysis approach (e.g., Wilks-based or Monte Carlo) with more sophisticated global methods, which allowed more detailed studies of uncertainty sources [23][24][25][26]. It was performed in the framework of the New Approach to Reactor Safety Improvements (NARSIS) Horizon-2020 research project [27].…”

Section: Scope and Motivationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of the In-Vessel Hydrogen Generation for Gen-III PWR and Phebus FPT-1 with MELCOR 2.2

2021

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In this study, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were performed with MELCOR 2.2.18 to study the hydrogen generation (figure-of-merit (FoM)) during the in-vessel phase of a severe accident in a light water reactor. The focus of this work was laid on a large generation-III pressurized water reactor (PWR) and a double-ended hot leg (HL) large break loss of coolant accident (LB-LOCA) without a safety injection (SI). The FPT-1 Phebus integral experiment emulating LOCA was studied, where the experiment outcomes were applied for the plant scale modelling. The best estimate calculations were supplemented with an uncertainty analysis (UA) based on 400 input-decks and Latin hypercube sampling (LHS). Additionally, the sensitivity analysis (SA) utilizing the linear regression and linear and rank correlation coefficients was performed. The study was prepared with a new open-source MELCOR sensitivity and uncertainty tool (MelSUA), which was supplemented with this work. The FPT-1 best-estimate model results were within the 10% experimental uncertainty band for the final FoM. It was shown that the hydrogen generation uncertainties in PWR were similar to the FPT-1, with the 95% percentile being covered inside a ~50% band and the 50% percentile inside a ~25% band around the FoM median. Two different power profiles for PWR were compared, indicating its impact on the uncertainty but also on the sensitivity results. Despite a similar setup, different uncertainty parameters impacted FoM, showing the difference between scales but also a significant impact of boundary conditions on the sensitivity analysis.

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Section: Scope and Motivationmentioning

confidence: 99%