Modernization, Self-Control and Lethal Violence. The Long-term Dynamics of European Homicide Rates in Theoretical Perspective

Abstract

The present paper examines secular trends of homicide rates by means of a systematic re-analysis of all available quantitative studies on pre-modern homicide. The results confirm, first, that homicide rates have declined in Europe over several centuries. Second, the empirical evidence shows, that unequivocal decline began in the early seventeenth century. Third, the data indicate that the secular decline begins with the pioneers of the modernization process, England and Holland, and slowly encompasses further regions. These findings corroborate much of the civilizing process framework proposed by Norbert Elias. Yet, the diffusion of self-control was sustained not only by compliance to the state monopoly of power but by a variety of disciplining institutional arrangements. This includes, for example, the early expansion of schools, particularly in Northern Europe, the rise of religious reform movements, and the organization of work in manufacturing. Second, while social disciplining certainly is the central feature of the early modern period, it also served to push forward the rise of the specifically modern individualism that Durkheim sees as the cause of the decline of individual-level violence. About 20 years ago, in an article that has become highly acclaimed among historians of crime, Ted Robert Gurr (1981: 295) examined empirical evidence on secular trends in lethal criminal violence. Gurr primarily reviewed a number of historical studies on homicide in medieval and early modern England, each based on detailed analyses of records for specific periods and specific jurisdictions. While not originally concerned with computing homicide rates, the studies did provide counts that could be used for estimating the rates. Gurr plotted the some 20 estimates for the period from about 1200 to 1800 on a graph, added the London homicide rates for the modern period, and fitted an elegant S-shaped trend curve to the data points. It starts at about 20 homicides per 100,000 population in the high and late Middle Ages and ends after an extended downswing at about one homicide per 100,000 in the twentieth century. Gurr interpreted this secular trend as 'a manifestation of cultural change in Western society, especially the growing sensitization to violence and the development of increased internal and external control on aggressive behavior' (Gurr 1981; also see Gurr 1989). Since then, an impressive amount of research in the history of crime and criminal justice has greatly enlarged knowledge about historical manifestations of lethal violence. It has shown that the history of violence has to be firmly situated in the context of social and cultural history and the long-term development of the core institutions of modern 618

Prehistoric Myths in Modern Political Philosophy

“…Eisner (2001) estimates regional murder rates for Western European countries during the thirteenth to fi fteenth centuries ranging between 23/100,000 and 73/100,000 person-years. (Rates such as this are usually reported per 100,000 person-years because they are typical only a small fraction of a percent.…”

Crime, the Criminal Justice System, and Socioeconomic Inequality

“…While the timing of crime peaks and declines differ somewhat across countries, they observe substantial declines in violent crime and lethal violence in particular throughout Western Europe, with the timing of the declines in the United Kingdom most similar to crime trends in the United States. Taking a longer historical view, Eisner (2001Eisner ( , 2008Eisner ( , 2014 argues that criminal violence and lethal violence in particular have declined considerably and almost continuously since the thirteenth century AD. From this very long-run perspective, the increase in violent crime throughout the western world beginning in the mid-1960s appears to be an aberration from a longer-term historical trend, with the downward trend resuming in the 1990s (Eisner 2008).…”

The Liberal Moment Fifteen Years On

“…15 Well, not quite. Eisner (2001) shows that crime rates have declined in Europe over several centuries. And Payne (2004) argues that crime as well as war has declined as part of the same civilizing process.…”