Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses

Abstract

The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

Macroeconomic effects of COVID‐19: A mid‐term review*

“…Surges in demand for ICU beds would likely lead to additional deaths. 2 See Brodeur, Gray, Islam, and Bhuiyan (2021) and Bloom, Kuhn, and Prettner (2021) for literature reviews on the economic impact and comparisons with previous epidemics, echoing some of the same themes in this article. 3 This section draws in part from Boissay and Rungcharoenkitkul (2020).…”

Towards a Broader Assessment of Value in Vaccines: The BRAVE Way Forward

“…Alternatively, they may be broad, in that they relate to a reduction in health care consumption at the community level, for example through lower spending on health care for individuals that are protected by herd immunity or outbreak prevention savings [ 5 ], or be generating ‘peace of mind’ which may lower rates of unnecessary clinical visits [ 25 ] Experts agreed that in practice the cost offsets considered in HTA are relatively narrow, noting that this is often driven by evidence limitations. They also commented that care should be taken to avoid double counting of cost savings achieved through the value of vaccines to other related interventions 100% 100% Impact on patient productivity Impact on lost days of work and on the level of productivity at work, both for getting vaccinated and for disease or mortality avoided Experts commented that, whilst a full conceptualisation of the value of vaccines should incorporate productivity effects, the decision to incorporate this into HTA assessments depends on whether the objective function of the decision maker is to maximise health, or welfare more broadly 90% 90% Impact on carers’ productivity Impact on caregivers’ time spent and level of productivity at work due to caring for a patient or taking them to be vaccinated As above 90% 70% Macroeconomic effects Vaccinations can have macroeconomic effects in the short-run, for example by preventing pandemics and outbreaks of emerging diseases [ 15 , 26 ]. They might also have long-run macroeconomic effects Experts noted that changes to health and survival patterns, particularly amongst children, can improve lifetime productivity (e.g.…”

“…because of their ability to reach full cognitive potential and access more education) [ 3 , 6 ]. A reduction in infectious diseases can also stimulate foreign direct investment [ 6 ], whilst pandemics can have long-term consequences on trade patterns [ 26 ] Experts also expressed some caution about assuming that all vaccines have macroeconomic effects, and the uncertainty involved in measuring these. However, consensus was reached that it was conceptually appropriate to measure macroeconomic effects, even if they were only relevant to some vaccines and pathogens.…”

“…because of their ability to reach full cognitive potential and access more education) [ 3 , 6 ]. A reduction in infectious diseases can also stimulate foreign direct investment [ 6 ], whilst pandemics can have long-term consequences on trade patterns [ 26 ]…”

Impact of Pandemic on Digital Economy Development in Russia

“…State programs for the introduction of digital technologies will continue to be implemented, since digital development is decisive for the country at the moment [19].…”