Models and modelling practices for assessing the impact of outbreak response interventions to human vaccine-preventable diseases (1970-2019) - A systematic review

Abstract

BackgroundMathematical modelling can aid outbreak response decision-making. However, this would require collaboration among model developers, decision-makers, and local experts to incorporate appropriate realism. We conducted a systematic review of modelling studies on human vaccine-preventable disease (VPD) outbreaks to identify patterns in modelling practices among collaborations. We complemented this with a mini review of eligible studies from the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) literature.MethodsThree databases were searched for studies published during 1970-2019 that applied models to assess the impact of an outbreak response. Per included study, we extracted data on author affiliation type (academic institution, governmental, and non-governmental organizations), whether at least one author was affiliated to the country studied, interventions, and model characteristics. Furthermore, the studies were grouped into two collaboration types: purely academic (papers with only academic affiliations), and mixed (all other combinations) to help investigate differences in modelling patterns between collaboration types in the human disease literature. Additionally, we compared modelling practices between the human VPD and FMD literature.ResultsHuman VPDs formed 228 of 253 included studies. Purely academic collaborations dominated the human disease studies (56%). Notably, mixed collaborations increased in the last seven years (2013 - 2019). Most studies had an author in the country studied (75.2%) but this was more likely among the mixed collaborations. Contrasted to the human VPDs, mixed collaborations dominated the FMD literature (56%). Furthermore, FMD studies more often had an author affiliated to the country studied (92%) and used complex model design, including stochasticity, and model parametrization and validation.ConclusionThe increase in mixed collaboration studies over the past seven years could suggest an increase in the uptake of modelling for outbreak response decision-making. We encourage more mixed collaborations between academic and non-academic institutions and the involvement of locally affiliated authors to help ensure that the studies suit local contexts.