Models and Methods to Estimate Digitalization Success Predictively

Abstract

The article outlines models of the formation of digitalization effects on the example of modern information (that is-digital) operations use in technological systems and methods to estimate indicators of digitalization success predictively. Models and methods constructed based on graph theory, probability theory and technical systems efficiency theory. Models describe changes in non-information operations as a result of the use of information operations as a reaction to environment change and thento estimate effects of noninformation operations in changing environments. Such models and methods can be used, for example, to estimate the digitalization performance, efficiency, and effectiveness indicators based on predictive mathematical models of information technology usage. Such models could be used for the estimation of dynamic capability and indicators of system potential as a result of technological systems digitalization. The estimation of mentioned operational properties of digitalization is obtained by plotting the dependences of predicted values of operational properties of the use of information technology as a result of digitalization against the variables and options of the problems to be solved.

System Potential Estimation with Regard to Digitalization: Main Ideas and Estimation Example

“…It is the development of the concept of such dependencies that causes conceptual difficulties on the way to build analytical mathematical models of functioning in changing conditions. The results presented in this study are aimed at bridging the gap between the need to solve abovementioned research problems and other operational properties based on analytical predictive mathematical models and methods [9,10,16,17] and the lack of the necessary concepts and methodology for solving usage problems of information operations in the sense of formalizing them as mathematical problems of estimation, analysis, and planning by indicators of operational properties [18]. The system potential with regard to the use of information operations and thus with regard to digitalization [19,20] is investigated to consider the aforementioned complex of CTS operational properties and to solve the problems specified.…”