Models and methods for economic policy: 60 years of evolution at CPB*

Don, F.J.H.; Verbruggen, Johan

doi:10.1111/j.1467-9574.2006.00323.x

Cited by 27 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 28 publications

(16 reference statements)

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“…In 2000, there were 2483 Dutch inhabitants per 1 FTE GP. In 2009, this figure was 2350 inhabitants per FTE [ 30 , 33 ]. Hence, the inhabitant-to-GP ratio is stable and actually increased slightly, which may also reflect that the unmet demand for care has been compensated in the last decade.…”

Section: Discussion and Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ten years of health workforce planning in the Netherlands: a tentative evaluation of GP planning as an example

2012

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IntroductionIn many countries, health-care labour markets are constantly being challenged by an alternation of shortage and oversupply. Avoiding these cyclic variations is a major challenge. In the Netherlands, a workforce planning model has been used in health care for ten years.Case descriptionSince 1970, the Dutch government has explored different approaches to determine the inflow in medical schools. In 2000, a simulation model for health workforce planning was developed to estimate the required and available capacity of health professionals in the Netherlands. In this paper, this model is explained, using the Dutch general practitioners as an example. After the different steps in the model are clarified, it is shown how elements can be added to arrive at different versions of the model, or ‘scenarios’. A comparison is made of the results of different scenarios for different years. In addition, the subsequent stakeholder decision-making process is considered.Discussion and evaluationDiscussion of this paper shows that workforce planning in the Netherlands is a complex modelling task, which is sensitive to different developments influencing the balance between supply and demand. It seems plausible that workforce planning has resulted in a balance between supply and demand of general practitioners. Still, it remains important that the modelling process is accepted by the different stakeholders. Besides calculating the balance between supply and demand, there needs to be an agreement between the stakeholders to implement the advised training inflow.The Dutch simulation model was evaluated using six criteria to be met by models suitable for policy objectives. This model meets these criteria, as it is a comprehensive and parsimonious model that can include all relevant factors.ConclusionOver the last decade, health workforce planning in the Netherlands has become an accepted instrument for calculating the required supply of health professionals on a regular basis. One of the strengths of the Dutch model is that it can be used for different types of medical and allied health professionals. A weakness is that the model is not yet fully capable of including substitutions between different medical professions to plan from a skill-mix perspective. Several improvements remain possible.

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Section: Discussion and Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ten years of health workforce planning in the Netherlands: a tentative evaluation of GP planning as an example

2012

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“…Recently, it has been used in the fields of economic integration ( De Bruijn , Kox and Lejour , 2008; Lejour , Rojas‐Romagosa and Verweij , 2008) and climate change ( Veenendaal and Manders , 2008). For a description of the various models used by the CPB Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Research we refer to Don and Verbruggen (2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing non‐nested demand relations: linear expenditure system versus indirect addilog*

Boer

Paap

2009

Statistica Neerlandica

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In applied economic research computable general equilibrium [CGE] models in which the behavior of economic agents are modeled, are widely used. In many CGE models, the Linear Expenditure System [LES] is used to model behavior of the household sector. The disadvantage of LES is that the Engel curves, describing the relationship between expenditure on a certain commodity and total expenditure, are straight lines. Moreover, the LES does not allow for the existence of inferior commodities, elastic demand and gross substitution. An alternative model for the household block is the Indirect Addilog System [IAS] which is as simple to implement as LES, but which does not suffer from these theoretical deficiencies. Consequently, IAS provides a theoretically richer description of household behavior than LES, while it is as easy to implement.In this paper we test the LES specification against the IAS specification in case one disposes of a budget survey. It is not possible to use a standard likelihood ratio test as both models are not nested. We propose to use the likelihood ratio test for non-nested hypotheses due to Vuong (1989), or, alternatively, the distribution-free test due to Clarke (2007). We apply both tests to the Palestinian Expenditure and Consumption Survey (PECS, 2005) and find that there is overwhelming evidence that the IAS specification is to be preferred to the LES specification.

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“…An example of the intensified use of CGE models can be found in the Netherlands, where the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) uses CGEs for policy support [58,59]. Nowadays, The CPB evaluates the political plans of many of the parties in times of national elections.…”

Section: Computable General Equilibriummentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling for Transition Management

Chappin

Dijkema

2015

SSRN Journal

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A framework for the modeling and simulation of transitions is presented. A transition, "substantial change in the state of a socio-technical system", typically unfolds over a long timespan. We therefore suggest to use simulation to inform transition managers on the effect of their decisions. Transition models preferably meet five functional requirements: to allow for the representation of physical and social components, for material and immaterial interactions, to allow the system structure to change, to compute transition indicators and to capture the effect of interventions. Modeling the decarbonization of the power sector illustrates that an agent-based model allows us to let both the content and the structure of a system to emerge in a simulation.

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Models and methods for economic policy: 60 years of evolution at CPB*

Cited by 27 publications

References 28 publications

Ten years of health workforce planning in the Netherlands: a tentative evaluation of GP planning as an example

Ten years of health workforce planning in the Netherlands: a tentative evaluation of GP planning as an example

Testing non‐nested demand relations: linear expenditure system versus indirect addilog*

Modeling for Transition Management

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