Modelling weather dependence in online reliability assessment of power systems

Abstract

Probabilistic reliability assessment of power systems is an ongoing field of research, particularly in the development of tools to model the probability of exogenous threats and their potential consequences. This paper describes the application of a weather-dependent failure rate model to a region of the Icelandic transmission system, using 10 years of weather data and overhead line fault records. The studied failure rate model is compared with a constant failure rate model, in terms of variability and how well the models perform in a blind test over a 2 year period in reflecting the occurrence of outages. The weather-dependent and constant failure rate models are used as input to a state-of-the-art risk assessment tool to determine the sensitivity of such software to weather-dependent threats. The results show the importance of weather-dependent contingency probabilities in risk estimation, and in quantitative assessment of maintenance activities. The results also demonstrate that inclusion of weather dependence in power system reliability assessments affects the overall distribution of risk as a positively skewed distribution, with high-risk periods occurring at low frequency.

Probabilistic Resilience Analysis of the Icelandic Power System under Extreme Weather

“…We begin by defining weather dependent failure rates for each time step in the analysis horizon and component of the transmission system. To do so, we rely on the methodology introduced in detail in [3,20]. Briefly, the methodology involves categorizing the observed failures of each individual component according to the identified primary cause and mapping this data to the time series describing the intensity of the identified primary cause.…”

Application of power law model in reliability evaluation of machine tools by considering working condition difference

“…Third, the working conditions in each WCL are obtained in accordance with Equations (16) to (18). p b , the MWC in the working condition, is obtained in accordance with Equations (22) to (24). Table 3 presents the results.…”

“…R e (t) and MTBF e point estimates and interval estimators are calculated in accordance with Equations (19) to (21), and Table 3 shows the results. Simultaneously, MWCs under 20 types of working conditions are obtained in accordance with Equations (22) to (24), that is, the MVPPLM considering all working conditions is obtained.…”

“…A number of researchers used different models to evaluate the impact of working condition difference on the reliability level of products in different fields. Perkin analyzed the effect of complex weather on power system reliability based on the proportional hazards model . Xiang evaluated the reliability of electronic systems under different environmental conditions based on the product environmental adaptability model based on sample data .…”

“…Perkin analyzed the effect of complex weather on power system reliability based on the proportional hazards model. 22 Xiang evaluated the reliability of electronic systems under different environmental conditions based on the product environmental adaptability model based on sample data. 23 Nogueira investigated the different temperatures and humidity conditions on the impact of led reliability though accelerated life test.…”