Modelling Vulnerability to Severe Weather

Abstract

Abstract. We present a spatial analysis of weather related fire brigade operations in Berlin. By comparing operation occurrences to insured losses for a set of severe weather events we demonstrate the representativeness and usefulness of such data in the analysis of weather impacts on local scales. We investigate factors influencing the local rate of operation occurrence.While depending on multiple factors -which are often not available -we focus on publicly available quantities. These include topographic features, land use information based on satellite data and information on urban structure based on data from the 10 open street map project. After identifying suitable predictors such as housing density or local density of the road network we set-up a statistical model to be able to predict local operation densities. Such model can be used to determine potential "hotspots" for weather impacts even in areas or cities where no systematic records are available and can thus serve as a basis for a broad range of tools or applications in emergency management and planning.

Impacts as Triggers for Weather-Related Decision Making: Observations at the Berlin Fire Brigade Control and Dispatch Center

“…In the dispatch center incoming calls to the emergency telephone number for firefighting and ambulance services (112) are answered and the resulting missions are dispatched and coordinated. Weather-related missions are typically marked with alerting terms such as ''tree,'' ''traffic obstruction,'' or ''water damage'' (Pardowitz 2018), indicating the significance of the consequences of severe weather for weather-related decision making.…”