Modelling tropical cyclone over-water wind and pressure fields

McConochie, Jason; Hardy, Thomas; Mason, Luciano B.

doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2004.03.009

Cited by 30 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…The tropical cyclone forcing for the ocean model was derived from two sources: (1) a parametric tropical cyclone model, CycWind [ McConochie et al ., ] and (2) a global high‐resolution atmospheric hind‐cast model, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) [ Saha et al ., ]. The parametric model was used to capture an accurate high‐resolution picture of the peak wind and pressure intensity during the storm.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The parametric cyclone model, CycWind [ McConochie et al ., ] uses the cyclone track, central pressure, and radius to maximum wind, all of which were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's historical tropical cyclone database (http://www.bom.gov.au), to drive a double vortex model description of the time‐variable and spatially variable wind field. The model is based on the Holland‐type analytic cyclone model [ Holland , ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Near‐inertial ocean response to tropical cyclone forcing on the Australian North‐West Shelf

et al. 2015

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The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) was applied to the Australian North‐West Shelf (NWS) to hindcast the ocean response to four intense historical tropical cyclones (TCs). While the four cyclones had very different trajectories across the NWS, all passed within 150 km of a long‐term vertical mooring located on the continental shelf in 125 m depth. The observed ocean response at this relatively shallow, Southern Hemisphere shelf site was characterized by the development of a peak in the counter‐clockwise (CCW) near‐inertial kinetic energy, mixed layer deepening, and subsequent restratification. Strong near‐inertial isotherm oscillations were also observed following two of the cyclones. ROMS reproduced these features and also showed that the peak in the near‐inertial CCW kinetic energy was observed on the left side of each cyclone trajectory. The time rate of change of near‐inertial kinetic energy depended strongly on the storm Rossby number, i.e., defined based on the storm speed, the storm length scale, and the Coriolis frequency. The shallow water depth on the NWS resulted in first, a more rapid decay of near‐inertial oscillations than in the deep ocean, and second a generation efficiency (the ratio of near‐inertial power to the rate of wind work) of up to 10%, smaller than found for cyclones propagating across deeper water. The total energy put into near‐inertial motions is nevertheless large compared to the background tidal energy. The rapid decay of near‐inertial motions emphasizes the importance of frictional effects in characterizing the response to cyclone forcing in shallow seas.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Near‐inertial ocean response to tropical cyclone forcing on the Australian North‐West Shelf

et al. 2015

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“…This is not a surprising result, since the model was originally developed utilising data obtained from tropical cyclone Tracy (Holland 1980). From the available boundary layer models (Hubbert et al 1991;Kepert 2001;McConochie et al 2004), the Kepert model was selected owing to the inbuilt gradient-to-surface wind reduction (which is necessary when the Holland model is employed, as it estimates a gradient level wind; Harper 2002), and the success of this model in replicating the wind field of tropical cyclone Larry (Edwards et al 2007). The resulting model was calibrated to the maximum gust wind speed of 72 ms -1 recorded at the anemograph site at Darwin Airport (Bureau of Meteorology 1977).…”

Section: Selection Of the Parametric Wind Fieldmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…The radial profiles available in TCRM were assessed for their viability in recreating the wind fields associated with tropical cyclone Tracy. These are the profiles of Schloemer (1954);Jelesnianski (1966);Holland (1980); McConochie et al ((2004) also referred to as double Holland); Willoughby et al (2006) and a Rankine vortex. Although these models share many common features, there are significant differences that become apparent when each profile is calculated for tropical cyclone Tracy's characteristics.…”

Section: Wind Field Modelling Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the impacts of tropical cyclone Tracy on residential building stock - 1974 and 2008

Schofield¹,

Arthur²,

Cechet³

2010

AMOJ

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Tropical cyclone Tracy (Tracy) remains one of the most destructive natural hazard events in Australia's history. Growth in the population and size of Darwin since 1974 makes it desirable to know what impact an event similar to Tracy would have on the present day built environment. To assess the impacts in 1974 and the present day, we apply the Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM) developed at Geoscience Australia.A parametric wind field generated by TCRM is applied to building damage models in an attempt to reproduce the widespread damage to residential structures associated with Tracy in 1974. Employing these models yields a mean damage estimate of 36 per cent of replacement cost across all residential building stock in Darwin -a figure lower than that determined by post-event damage assessments. The unaccounted impact of large windborne debris is one possible explanation for the discrepancy between the observed and simulated damage.Based on the satisfactory replication of the damage associated with the historical impacts of Tracy, the wind field is then applied to the current day residential building database in order to assess the impact of Tracy were it to strike Darwin in 2008. We find that the mean damage to Darwin for the same urban footprint as the 1974 analysis in the present day would be around five per cent. This represents an approximately 90 per cent reduction in the modelled damage, and a significant portion of this reduction can be attributed to building code improvements.

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“…Data concerning tropical cyclone tides are difficult to collect. The storm tide triggered by a tropical cyclone is related to the central pressure of the storm and the maximum wind speed near the center (Mcconochie et al 2004;Madsen and Jakobsen 2004). Current meteorological observation systems are capable of closely monitoring these two items and predicting them with relative accuracy 24-48 h in advance, together with the landfall position of the storms.…”

Section: Selection Of Assessment Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of economic losses from tropical cyclone disasters based on PCA-BP

et al. 2011

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Tropical cyclones are the most common natural disasters in coastal regions and are the most costly in terms of economic losses. Economic loss assessment is the basis for disaster prevention and alleviation and for insurance indemnification. We use data from 1970 to 2008 for Zhejiang Province, China, in this study evaluating economic losses. We convert direct economic losses from tropical cyclone disasters in Zhejiang Province into indices of direct economic losses. To establish our assessment model, we process disasterinducing assessment factors, disaster-formative environments and disaster-affected bodies using the principal component analysis method, and we abstract the principal component as the input of a BP neural network model. We found in the actual assessments of five tropical cyclones affecting Zhejiang Province in 2007 and 2008 that the post-disaster loss assessment values of tropical cyclones were higher than the actual losses, but that for more severe storms, the gap was smaller. This reflects the beneficial effect of efforts toward disaster prevention and alleviation for severe tropical cyclones. Pre-assessments based on relatively accurate forecast values of wind and precipitation at the start of a tropical cyclone have been in accordance with the post-disaster assessment values, while the preassessment results using less accurate forecast values have been unsatisfactory. Therefore, this model can be applied in the actual assessment of direct economic loss from tropical cyclone damage, but increasingly accurate forecasting of wind and precipitation remains crucial to improving the accuracy of pre-assessments.

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Modelling tropical cyclone over-water wind and pressure fields

Cited by 30 publications

References 12 publications

Near‐inertial ocean response to tropical cyclone forcing on the Australian North‐West Shelf

Near‐inertial ocean response to tropical cyclone forcing on the Australian North‐West Shelf

Assessing the impacts of tropical cyclone Tracy on residential building stock - 1974 and 2008

Assessment of economic losses from tropical cyclone disasters based on PCA-BP

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