Modelling the variation of land surface temperature as determinant of risk of heat-related health events

Abstract

BackgroundThe evaluation of exposure to ambient temperatures in epidemiological studies has generally been based on records from meteorological stations which may not adequately represent local temperature variability. Here we propose a spatially explicit model to estimate local exposure to temperatures of large populations under various meteorological conditions based on satellite and meteorological data.MethodsA general linear model was used to estimate surface temperatures using 15 LANDSAT 5 and LANDSAT 7 images for Quebec Province, Canada between 1987 and 2002 and spanning the months of June to August. The images encompassed both rural and urban landscapes and predictors included: meteorological records of temperature and wind speed, distance to major water bodies, Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI), land cover (built and bare land, water, or vegetation), latitude, longitude, and week of the year.ResultsThe model explained 77% of the variance in surface temperature, accounting for both temporal and spatial variations. The standard error of estimates was 1.42°C. Land cover and NDVI were strong predictors of surface temperature.ConclusionsThis study suggests that a statistical approach to estimating surface temperature incorporating both spatially explicit satellite data and time-varying meteorological data may be relevant to assessing exposure to heat during the warm season in the Quebec. By allowing the estimation of space- and time-specific surface temperatures, this model may also be used to assess the possible impacts of land use changes under various meteorological conditions. It can be applied to assess heat exposure within a large population and at relatively fine-grained scale. It may be used to evaluate the acute health effect of heat exposure over long time frames. The method proposed here could be replicated in other areas around the globe for which satellite data and meteorological data is available.

Changes in land use, climate and the environment during a period of rapid economic development in Jiangsu Province, China

“…7B). Previous studies explored the associations between air temperature and land use types based on remote sensing and GIS analyses (Kestens et al, 2011;Buscail et al, 2012;Zhou et al, 2014). Some similar result is yielded in this study.…”

Empirical Estimation of Near-Surface Air Temperature in China from MODIS LST Data by Considering Physiographic Features

“…During the nighttime, due to the radiative cooling at the surface, the air will generally be stably stratified and thus the turbulence generated by surface friction will be weakened [58,59]. The earth surface behaves almost as an isothermal and homogeneous surface, simplifying the retrieval process and improving the estimation accuracy of the air temperature [24,60,61]. However, in the daytime, the influences of direct solar illumination, the surface and weather conditions and the satellite itself result in more complex interactions between Ta and LST [17,24].…”

Équité environnementale et distribution spatiale de la végétation à l’intérieur et autour des îlots résidentiels à Montréal : une double iniquité ?

“…De leur côté, les ménages à faible revenu sont plus confinés à leur quartier puisqu'ils sont souvent moins motorisés. Or, l'absence de végétation dans certains quartiers contribue aux îlots de chaleur durant les canicules qui sévissent certains étés à Montréal, pouvant avoir des conséquences néfastes chez certaines populations, notamment les aînés (Smargiassi et al, 2009 ;Kestens et al, 2011). Ainsi les citoyens n'étant pas tous égaux face au manque de végétation, il serait judicieux de raisonner non pas en termes d'équité distributionnelle, mais plutôt en termes d'équité compensatoire (Talen, 1998 ;Apparicio et Séguin, 2006b).…”