Modelling the Transmission Dynamics of Banana Xanthomonas Wilt Disease with Contaminated Soil

Abstract

Banana Xanthomonas Wilt disease (BXW) is a bacterial disease which highly threaten banana production in east and central Africa. It is caused by a bacteria known as Xanthomonas campestris pv. musacearum (Xcm). Mathematical modelling gives an insight on how to best understand the transmission dynamics and control of the disease. The existing mathematical models have not included contaminated soil in the dynamics of BXW. In this study we formulated a model which includes contaminated soil, calculated the basic reproduction number and carried out sensitivity analysis of some model parameters. We further conducted numerical simulation to validate the results. The simulations show that the infection rate by contaminated farming tools ( iand e β ), the infection rate by contaminated soil ( 2 ω ), vertical disease transmission rate (θ ), and the shedding rate of Xcm bacteria in the soil (φ ) are positively sensitive to the basic reproduction number. While, the most negative sensitive parameters are the clearance rate of Xcm bacteria from the soil ( h µ ), removal of infected plants from the farm ( r ), harvesting ( p α ), and banana plants disease induced death rate ( d ).The result also shows that contaminated soil contributes to the transmission and persistence of BXW disease.Therefore, we recommend that, along with the existing control measures scientist and technologist should carry out studies to find a way to reduce or avoid vertical disease transmission and increase the Xcm clearance rate in the soil. Furthermore, technology for early detection of infected plants should be brought down to the local farmers at affordable costs. This will help stakeholders to detect and remove the infected plants from the farm in time and hence reduce the number of secondary infections.

Time is not always money: A preliminary study on socially sustainable strategies for banana xanthomonas wilt (BXW) mitigation efforts in Mbarara region, Uganda

“…There are seven districts and eight local governments. And data from Tanzania (Mapinda et al, 2019) is suggesting that contaminated soil may be more important for transmission than thought previously.…”

“…Importantly, Mapinda et al (2019) also emphasize infected tools as an important transmission vector in Tanzania. Because JIK is not effective when tools are dipped for less than three minutes (Mwangi et al, 2007), this impacts the fifth recommendation above -namely, to exclusively use only disinfected tools and at least three pangas for cooking.…”

“…Requiring mitigation compliance without supporting these social goals risks decreased BXW control, physical and mental health, and decreased productivity (Bentein et al, 2017;Ferreira et al, 2019;Kloutsiniotis and Mihail, 2020;Molia et al, 2015). As such, in addition to the economic (financial) impacts involved tool disinfection compliance (Kilwinger et al, 2019;Langyintuo and Mekuria, 2008), the prohibitive and additional social costs involved in the time-intensiveness of disinfecting tools, whether by JIK or fire, affect compliance and BXW control as well (Jogo et al, 2013;Mapinda et al, 2019;Mwangi et al, 2007).…”