Modelling the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches using an expert system approach for risk management on high alpine traffic roads

Zischg, Andreas Paul; Fuchs, Sven; Keiler, Margreth; Meißl, Gertraud

doi:10.5194/nhess-5-821-2005

Cited by 42 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…If global temperatures increase, a shift towards more liquid precipitation would also imply changing hazard potentials for floods (smaller snow stocks and reduced water amounts for melting) and avalanches (liquid precipitation provided on existing snow cover; Hägeli and McClung, 2003;Zischg et al, 2005). Weather variability, too, has a significant impact on the hydrological regime, as can be inferred from the strong interannual hydrograph variability (Fig.…”

Section: Hydrological Cyclementioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity analysis and implications for surface processes from a hydrological modelling approach in the Gunt catchment, high Pamir Mountains

et al. 2015

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Abstract.A clear understanding of the hydrology is required to capture surface processes and potential inherent hazards in orogens. Complex climatic interactions control hydrological processes in high mountains that in their turn regulate the erosive forces shaping the relief. To unravel the hydrological cycle of a glaciated watershed (Gunt River) considered representative of the Pamir Mountains' hydrologic regime, we developed a remotesensing-based approach. At the boundary between two distinct climatic zones dominated by the Westerlies and Indian summer monsoon, the Pamir Mountains are poorly instrumented and only a few in situ meteorological and hydrological data are available. We adapted a suitable conceptual distributed hydrological model (J2000g). Interpolations of the few available in situ data are inadequate due to strong, relief-induced, spatial heterogeneities. Instead of these we use raster data, preferably from remote sensing sources depending on availability and validation. We evaluate remote-sensing-based precipitation and temperature products. MODIS MOD11 surface temperatures show good agreement with in situ data, perform better than other products, and represent a good proxy for air temperatures. For precipitation we tested remote sensing products as well as the HAR10 climate model data and the interpolation-based APHRODITE data set. All products show substantial differences both in intensity and seasonal distribution with in situ data. Despite low resolutions, the data sets are able to sustain high model efficiencies (NSE ≥ 0.85). In contrast to neighbouring regions in the Himalayas or the Hindu Kush, discharge is dominantly the product of snow and glacier melt, and thus temperature is the essential controlling factor. Eighty percent of annual precipitation is provided as snow in winter and spring contrasting peak discharges during summer. Hence, precipitation and discharge are negatively correlated and display complex hysteresis effects that allow for the effect of interannual climatic variability on river flow to be inferred. We infer the existence of two subsurface reservoirs. The groundwater reservoir (providing 40 % of annual discharge) recharges in spring and summer and releases slowly during autumn and winter, when it provides the only source for river discharge. A not fully constrained shallow reservoir with very rapid retention times buffers meltwaters during spring and summer. The negative glacier mass balance (−0.6 m w.e. yr −1 ) indicates glacier retreat, which will ultimately affect the currently 30 % contribution of glacier melt to annual stream flow. The spatiotemporal dependence of water release from snow and ice during the annual cycle likewise implies spatiotemporally restricted surface processes, which are essentially confined to glaciated catchments in late summer, when glacier runoff is the only source of surface runoff. Only this precise constraint of the hydrologic cycle in this complex region allows for unravelling of the surface processes and natural hazards such as floo...

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Section: Hydrological Cyclementioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity analysis and implications for surface processes from a hydrological modelling approach in the Gunt catchment, high Pamir Mountains

et al. 2015

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“…Fuchs et al 2004;Kienholz et al 2004;Zischg et al 2005a) and thus to reduce losses. Based on this concept, tailored strategies for sustainable use of mountain areas for settlement, economic purpose and recreation can be developed (Holub and Fuchs 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial scan statistics in vulnerability assessment: an application to mountain hazards

2012

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In the European Alps, the concept of risk has increasingly been applied in order to reduce the susceptibility of society to mountain hazards. Risk is defined as a function of the magnitude and frequency of a hazard process times consequences; the latter being quantified by the value of elements at risk exposed and their vulnerability. Vulnerability is defined by the degree of loss to a given element at risk resulting from the impact of a natural hazard. Recent empirical studies suggested a dependency of the degree of loss on the hazard impact, and respective vulnerability (or damage-loss) functions were developed. However, until now, only little information is available on the spatial characteristics of vulnerability on a local scale; considerable ranges in the loss ratio for medium process intensities only provide a hint that there might be mutual reasons for lower or higher loss rates. In this paper, we therefore focus on the spatial dimension of vulnerability by searching for spatial clusters in the damage ratio of elements at risk exposed. By using the software SaTScan, we applied an ordinal data model and a normal data model in order to detect spatial distribution patterns of five individual torrent events in Austria. For both models, we detected some significant clusters of high damage ratios, and consequently high vulnerability. Moreover, secondary clusters of high and low values were found. Based on our results, the assumption that lower process intensities result in lower damage ratios, and therefore in lower vulnerability, and vice versa, has to be partly rejected. The spatial distribution of vulnerability is not only dependent on the process intensities but also on the overall land use pattern and the individual constructive characteristics of the buildings exposed. Generally, we suggest the use of a normal data model for test sites exceeding a minimum of 30 elements at risk exposed. As such, the study enhanced our understanding of spatial vulnerability patterns on a local scale.

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“…Long-term changes were found to be a result from the significant increase in numbers and values of properties endangered by natural hazard processes, and can be observed in both rural and urban mountain areas of Europe (Keiler, 2004;Keiler et al, 2006a;Shnyparkov et al, 2012). Short-term fluctuations in elements at risk supplemented the underlying long-term trend, in particular with respect to temporary variations of people in hazard-prone areas and of vehicles on the road network Keiler et al, 2005;Zischg et al, 2005). These results suggest that the spatial occurrence of losses is not so much dependent on the occurrence of specifically large events with high hazard magnitudes but more a result of an increased number of elements at risk in endangered areas .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A spatiotemporal multi-hazard exposure assessment based on property data

Fuchs

Keiler

Zischg

2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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156

117

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Abstract. The paper presents a nation-wide spatially explicit object-based assessment of buildings and citizens exposed to natural hazards in Austria, including river flooding, torrential flooding, and snow avalanches. The assessment was based on two different data sets, (a) hazard information providing input to the exposure of elements at risk, and (b) information on the building stock combined from different spatial data available on the national level. Hazard information was compiled from two different sources. For torrential flooding and snow avalanches available local-scale hazard maps were used, and for river flooding the results of the countrywide flood modelling eHORA were available. Information on the building stock contained information on the location and size of each building, as well as on the building category and the construction period. Additional information related to the individual floors, such as their height and net area, main purpose and configuration, was included for each property. Moreover, this data set has an interface to the population register and allowed, therefore, for retrieving the number of primary residents for each building. With the exception of sacral buildings, an economic module was used to compute the monetary value of buildings using (a) the information of the building register such as building type, number of storeys and utilisation, and (b) regionally averaged construction costs.It is shown that the repeatedly stated assumption of increasing exposure due to continued population growth and related increase in assets has to be carefully evaluated by the local development of building stock. While some regions have shown a clearly above-average increase in assets, other regions were characterised by a below-average development. This mirrors the topography of the country, but also the different economic activities. While hotels and hostels are extraordinarily prone to torrential flooding, commercial buildings as well as buildings used for recreational purposes are considerably exposed to river flooding. Residential buildings have shown an average exposure, compared to the number of buildings of this type in the overall building stock. In sum, around 5 % of all buildings are exposed to torrential flooding, and around 9 % to river flooding, with around 1 % of the buildings stock being multi-exposed. The temporal assessment of exposure has shown considerable differences in the dynamics of exposure to different hazard categories in comparison to the overall property stock. In conclusion, the presented object-based assessment is an important and suitable tool for nation-wide exposure assessment and may be used in operational risk management.

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Modelling the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches using an expert system approach for risk management on high alpine traffic roads

Cited by 42 publications

References 22 publications

Sensitivity analysis and implications for surface processes from a hydrological modelling approach in the Gunt catchment, high Pamir Mountains

Sensitivity analysis and implications for surface processes from a hydrological modelling approach in the Gunt catchment, high Pamir Mountains

Spatial scan statistics in vulnerability assessment: an application to mountain hazards

A spatiotemporal multi-hazard exposure assessment based on property data

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