Modelling the symmetric and asymmetric relationships between oil prices and those of corn, barley, and rapeseed oil

Eissa, Mohamad Abdelaziz; Refai, Hisham Al

doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.101511

Cited by 19 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…This research is based upon the assessment structure of the PRISMA statement presented in the Appendix A [3]. This reporting standard is widely used in the medical and health-care fields [13,14], and it is commonly accepted as a useful reporting guideline in those disciplines in order to enhance the completeness of the reporting of systematic reviews [15,16].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As with many disciplines in various scientific fields, the future prospects of the bioethanol sector are very difficult to forecast [1]. This can be explained by the fact that the sector's economic positions are heavily dependent on processes occurring: (1) in the market of agricultural raw materials, which in itself is very turbulent in an era of global climate change [2] and oil price fluctuations [3]; (2) technological innovation in production [4]; (3) the market relations of by-products [5] and (4) the varying economic policies of different states [6]. It follows from this complexity that the bioethanol sector lends itself to the application of system dynamics [7], which is an emerging field of science, widely applied in modelling the economic aspects of energy supply systems [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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PRISMA Statement for Reporting Literature Searches in Systematic Reviews of the Bioethanol Sector

et al. 2020

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The bioethanol sector is an extremely complex set of actors, technologies and market structures, influenced simultaneously by different natural, economic, social and political processes. That is why it lends itself to the application of system dynamics modelling. In last five years a relatively high level of experience and knowledge has accumulated related to the application of computer-aided system modelling for the analysis and forecasting of the bioethanol sector. The goal of the current paper is to offer a systematic review of the application of system dynamics models in order to better understand the structure, conduct and performance of the bioethanol sector. Our method has been the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA), based on English-language materials published between 2015 and 2020. The results highlight that system dynamic models have become more and more complex, but as a consequence of the improvement in information technology and statistical systems, as well as the increasing experience gained they offer an efficient tool for decision makers in the business and political spheres. In the future, the combination of traditional system dynamics modelling and agent-based models will offer new perspectives for the preparation of more sophisticated description and forecasting.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

PRISMA Statement for Reporting Literature Searches in Systematic Reviews of the Bioethanol Sector

et al. 2020

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“…where: y is the unit price ($ Mg -1 ), x is the grain yield (Mg ha -1 ), and a and b are constants. Generally, the unit price of grain such as rice and barley had a non-linear relationship with its harvest yield (Carter, 1994;Eissa and Refai, 2019;Barboza, 2020). In Eq.…”

Section: Soil Propertiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulated impacts of rainfall extremes on yield responses of various barley varieties in a temperate region

Yoon

Kim

et al. 2021

Int. Agrophys.

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A b s t r a c t. As population rises, more people need to be fed. With increasing income, the potential exists for increases in the demand for cereals (i.e., barley). Since barley has a high level of tolerance to environmental stressors, this crop has been recommended as a potential crop for food security in marginal environments. In this study, a crop growth Agricultural Land Management Alternatives with Numerical Assessment Criteria model, was parameterized and used to simulate the yields of two barley types grown in a temperate environment at a latitude of 35°N. In order to apply this crop model to barley, 19 years of field data were used to model calibration and validation. As a result, the ALMANAC model accurately simulated yields for both barley types. The validated model was used to predict yields under three diverse seasonal rainfall scenarios associated with different patterns of the Central Pacific El Niño influence. According to the simulation results, excessively high seasonal rainfall decreased barley yields. Crop price and annual revenue of the two barley types were also evaluated using a non-linear regression model. For the malt type, the food price was higher with a higher rainfall, while naked barley had a higher revenue under the conditions of a lower rainfall.K e y w o r d s: barley, rainfall, simulation, food cost, grain yield

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“…Another group of papers refer to the relationships between crude oil and precious metal prices (Zhang and Wei [8], Jain and Ghosh [9]) or between crude oil and agricultural items prices (Kristoufek et al [6], Eissa and Al Refai [10], Sarwar et al [11]). Zhang and Wei [8] analysed cointegration and causality among the gold market and the crude oil market and observed consistent trends with a significant positive correlation between the price of crude oil and the gold price from January 2000 to March 2008.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the medium-term, they showed that ethanol prices were connected to the food prices. Eissa and Al Refai [10] investigated the dynamic linkage among crude oil (WTI, Brent, Dubai Fateh) prices and agricultural products (corn, barley, rapeseed oil) prices from January 1990 to December 2018. Their findings, based on results from linear models, showed that the prices of these agricultural items did not co-move with oil prices in the long term.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Interrelationships between Markets of Fuels in the Visegrad Group Countries from 2016 to 2020

Górska

Krawiec

2021

Energies

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A fuel market is an important sector of the economy and fuel prices influence the prices of numerous products and services. This paper focuses on the analysis of the interrelationships between markets of fuels in the Visegrad Group (V4) countries. The research is based on weekly prices of Pb95 gasoline and diesel in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia observed from January 2016 through December 2020. After performing the preliminary statistical analysis, the long-term relationships between the prices of fuels are investigated through application of the cointegrated regression Durbin–Watson (CRDW) test. Next, Granger causality is tested to answer the question of whether changes in prices of fuels in separate V4 countries Granger-cause changes in prices of fuels in other V4 countries. The cointegration research uses logarithmic prices, whereas causality investigation is based on their first differences. The results reveal long-term relationships between the prices of Pb95 gasoline in the Czech Republic and prices in other V4 countries as well as Granger causality flowing from diesel price changes in Poland to diesel price changes in other V4 countries and bilateral causation between changes in the prices of Pb95 gasoline in Poland, Hungary and Slovakia.

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Modelling the symmetric and asymmetric relationships between oil prices and those of corn, barley, and rapeseed oil

Cited by 19 publications

References 66 publications

PRISMA Statement for Reporting Literature Searches in Systematic Reviews of the Bioethanol Sector

PRISMA Statement for Reporting Literature Searches in Systematic Reviews of the Bioethanol Sector

Simulated impacts of rainfall extremes on yield responses of various barley varieties in a temperate region

Analysis of Interrelationships between Markets of Fuels in the Visegrad Group Countries from 2016 to 2020

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