Modelling the road network riskiness for motorcycle transport: The use of accident probability and accessibility to emergency medical service

Abstract

Motorcycle users are generally perceived as one of the most vulnerable road user groups. It is therefore evident that, in addition to a range of prevention and awareness-raising activities, it is also necessary to identify specific locations where motorcycle users are at risk. We use a synthetic approach to identify the road network sections dangerous for motorcycle traffic. We perceive the risk level of individual sections as a complex combination of the causes (accident probability) and consequences (accessibility of medical services) of motorcycle accidents. The combination of both factors is then used to define the Road Network Hazard Index (RNHI) as a newly introduced indicator synthetically assessing the risk levels of individual road network sections for motorcycle traffic. The motorcycle accident probability on the Czech road network is extremely differentiated. The time accessibility of accident locations from EMS dispatch stations shows a clear correlation with the severity of motorcycle accidents. The model for the accident locations’ accessibility indicates that the sparsely populated peripheral regions of the Czech Republic in particular show not only a higher motorcycle accident probability but also higher time accessibility values for emergency vehicles. The new RNHI provides a comprehensive view of the risk levels for motorcycle traffic in different Czech road network sections.