Modelling the range expansion of the Tiger mosquito in a Mediterranean Island accounting for imperfect detection

Abstract

Backgrounds Aedes albopictus (Diptera; Culicidae) is a highly invasive mosquito species and a competent vector of several arboviral diseases that have spread rapidly throughout the world. Prevalence and patterns of dispersal of the mosquito are of central importance for an effective control of the species. We used site-occupancy models accounting for false negative detections to estimate the prevalence, the turnover, the movement pattern and the growth rate in the number of sites occupied by the mosquito in 17 localities throughout Mallorca Island.ResultsSite-occupancy probability increased from 0.35 in the 2012, year of first reported observation of the species, to 0.89 in 2015. Despite a steady increase in mosquito presence, the extinction probability was generally high indicating a high turnover in the occupied sites. We considered two site-dependent covariates, namely the distance from the point of first observation and the estimated yearly occupancy rate in the neighborhood, as predicted by diffusion models. Results suggested that mosquito distribution during the first year was consistent with what predicted by simple diffusion models, but was not consistent with the diffusion model in subsequent years when it was similar to those expected from leapfrog dispersal events.ConclusionsAssuming a single initial colonization event, the spread of Ae. albopictus in Mallorca followed two distinct phases, an early one consistent with diffusion movements and a second consistent with long distance, ‘leapfrog’, movements. The colonization of the island was fast, with ~90% of the sites estimated to be occupied 3 years after the colonization. The fast spread was likely to have occurred through vectors related to human mobility such as cars or other vehicles. Surveillance and management actions near the introduction point would only be effective during the early steps of the colonization.

Rift Valley Fever – epidemiological update and risk of introduction into Europe

“…There is also evidence of Ae. albopictus eggs detected in resting areas along highways far away from the established area, which is consistent with a ‘leapfrog’ model of dispersion of adults inside vehicles (Roche et al., ; Tavecchia et al., ). Similarly, Egizi et al.…”

Water associated with residential areas and tourist resorts is the key predictor of Asian tiger mosquito presence on a Mediterranean island

“…Given the low mean annual precipitation, the island was not initially considered a suitable habitat for Asian tiger mosquito populations (Eritja et al ., ). However, the species was first recorded in 2012 and by 2015 the probability of its presence was estimated to be > 0.70 throughout the island (Palmer et al ., ; Tavecchia et al ., ).…”

“…The present study analyses the distribution of the Asian tiger mosquito in 2015, after the initial phase of spread (Tavecchia et al ., ). A network of 228 mosquito oviposition traps (ECDC, ) positioned at 1−457 m a.s.l.…”

“…Manica et al ., ). Recent colonizations of islands offer unique opportunities to follow the invasive process and to identify the habitat variables related to the distribution of the species at a meso‐scale (Tavecchia et al ., ).…”

A scoping review of importation and predictive models related to vector-borne diseases, pathogens, reservoirs, or vectors (1999–2016)

“…Two specific types of models are predictive models and importation models. Predictive models forecast the distribution or spread of a disease, pathogen, reservoir and/or vector over time, and have been used to model the effects of climate change on chikungunya transmission in Europe [10], as well as on the increasing range of vectors, such as Aedes albopictus on many continents globally [11,12]. Importation models investigate the introduction and/or movement of a disease/pathogen via a reservoir and/or vector from an endemic region to a non-endemic region, and have been used to investigate Zika virus [13], and dengue [14] introduction and transmission in different regions via global air travel.…”