Modelling the progression of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Vietnam and the opportunities for reassortment with other influenza viruses

Boni, Maciej F.; Manh, Bui Huu; Thai, Pham Quang; Farrar, Jeremy; Hien, Tran Tinh; Hiển, Nguyễn Trần; Kính, Nguyễn Văn; Horby, Peter

doi:10.1186/1741-7015-7-43

Cited by 30 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…This 2-peak pandemic trend was observed in the other provinces as well [11]. The mean age of the confirmed cases in our study was 21.8 years and this was similar to other studies [3,5,6,[13][14][15][16]. In our study there was just 1 person aged > 65 years.…”

Section: ‫املتوسط‬ ‫لرشق‬ ‫الصحية‬ ‫املجلة‬ ‫العرشون‬ ‫املجلد‬ ‫الثالsupporting

confidence: 79%

“…However, the frequency of symptoms varies widely in different countries [3,5,6,[13][14][15][16][17][18][19]. Different studies showed that most cases of infected H1N1 were mild, and severe cases of the disease were rare [4,5,8,20].…”

Section: ‫املتوسط‬ ‫لرشق‬ ‫الصحية‬ ‫املجلة‬ ‫العرشون‬ ‫املجلد‬ ‫الثالmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although some symptoms are specific to the severity and regions of the infection [6], most patients show slight or self-limiting disease [4,7,8]. As most patients have mild symptoms, it is likely that just a small proportion of infected patients are registered [8] and therefore incidence estimates are not exact.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Epidemiological survey on pandemic influenza A [H1N1] virus infection in Kurdistan province, Islamic Republic of Iran, 2009

Afrasiabian

Mohsenpour

Bagheri

et al. 2014

East Mediterr Health J

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This study evaluated the epidemiology of suspected cases of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus infection in [2009][2010] in Kurdistan province, a frontier province of the Islamic Republic of Iran. A questionnaire covering demographic characteristics, clinical presentation and outcome, and history of exposure and travel was completed by patients attending health centres and hospitals in the province. Nasal and throat swabs were analysed by RT-PCR. A total of 1059 suspected cases were assessed; H1N1 influenza A was confirmed in 157 (14.8%). The highest proportion of confirmed cases was 30.0%, among children aged < 1 year. In multivariate analysis, previous contact with symptomatic influenza patients (OR = 2.17) and hospitalization (OR = 3.88) were the only significant risk factors for confirmed H1N1 infection. Age, sex, residency, presenting symptoms and history of national or international travel were not significant. Influenza A (H1N1) virus has spread in Islamic Republic of Iran; probably transmitted by travellers to Kurdistan. RÉSUMÉ La présente étude visait à évaluer l'épidémiologie des cas suspectés d'infection par le virus de la grippe pandémique A(H1N1) en 2009-2010 dans la province du Kurdistan, une province frontalière de la République islamique d'Iran. Un questionnaire couvrant les caractéristiques démographiques, la présentation clinique et les résultats ainsi que les antécédents d'exposition et de déplacements a été rempli par les patients consultant dans les centres de santé et les hôpitaux de la province. Des prélèvements de nez et de gorge ont été analysés par PCR en temps réel. Au total, 1059 cas suspects ont été évalués ; le virus de la grippe A(H1N1) a été confirmé dans 157 cas (14,8 %). Le pourcentage le plus élevé de cas confirmés était 30 % chez les enfants de moins d'un an. À l' analyse multivariée, un contact antérieur avec des patients porteurs de symptômes de la grippe (OR = 2,17) et une hospitalisation (OR = 3,88) étaient les seuls facteurs de risque importants pour une infection à H1N1 confirmée. L'âge, le sexe, le lieu de résidence, les symptômes initiaux ainsi que des antécédents de voyages dans le pays ou à l'étranger n'étaient pas des facteurs significatifs. Le virus de la grippe A(H1N1) s'est propagé en République islamique d'Iran, probablement transmis par des voyageurs qui se rendaient au Kurdistan.

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Section: ‫املتوسط‬ ‫لرشق‬ ‫الصحية‬ ‫املجلة‬ ‫العرشون‬ ‫املجلد‬ ‫الثالsupporting

confidence: 79%

Section: ‫املتوسط‬ ‫لرشق‬ ‫الصحية‬ ‫املجلة‬ ‫العرشون‬ ‫املجلد‬ ‫الثالmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Epidemiological survey on pandemic influenza A [H1N1] virus infection in Kurdistan province, Islamic Republic of Iran, 2009

Afrasiabian

Mohsenpour

Bagheri

et al. 2014

East Mediterr Health J

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…This yielded 21 articles eligible for the review (Fig. 2) [3,4,[27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45]. By reference checking and studying policy documents from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the World Health Organization (WHO), 15 additional articles or documents were found [46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Choosing pandemic parameters for pandemic preparedness planning: A comparison of pandemic scenarios prior to and following the influenza A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic

et al. 2013

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“…10,11,14,16,22,30,31 The commonly used mathematical model among all is SIER model as it takes all factors of an epidemic phase of an individual i.e. Susceptible -Exposed -InfectiveRecovered.…”

Section: Totalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Models to predict H1N1 outbreaks: a literature review

Mutalik¹

2017

Int J Community Med Public Health

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With high mortality and panic association, policy-makers face the difficult task of making appropriate and timely decisions to mitigate the serious adverse effects over a short period of time during H1N1 influenza outbreak. Mathematical models predict the number of the cases and thus provide an insight for preparedness during outbreak. The objective was to identify various mathematical models used in prediction of H1N1 outbreaks till date and to compare the usefulness of these models in providing magnitude of H1N1 outbreaks. Hence a secondary data analysis of literature review was done. The literature search was conducted using PubMed and Google scholar, restricting it to articles published until May 2015. The key parameters were set for selection of articles and hence a total of 31 articles has been reviewed. Of each article included in the review, the following data was recorded: year of the study, year of pandemic referring to, country, described mathematical model with results of study The SEIR model is most commonly used mathematical model. SIER model takes all factors in a epidemic phase of an individual i.e. Susceptible -Exposed -Infective -Recovered. While studies which utilised SIER model with the combination of other models found the other factors which influence the occurrence of H1N1 outbreaks and also helped in prediction and prevention of number of cases during outbreak. The SEIR models in combination utilised secondary models such as social networking, global network and total layered containment. The literature review suggests that probable use of mathematical model along with some secondary models will help in better prediction and prevention of number of cases during outbreak.

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Modelling the progression of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Vietnam and the opportunities for reassortment with other influenza viruses

Cited by 30 publications

References 40 publications

Epidemiological survey on pandemic influenza A [H1N1] virus infection in Kurdistan province, Islamic Republic of Iran, 2009

Epidemiological survey on pandemic influenza A [H1N1] virus infection in Kurdistan province, Islamic Republic of Iran, 2009

Choosing pandemic parameters for pandemic preparedness planning: A comparison of pandemic scenarios prior to and following the influenza A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic

Models to predict H1N1 outbreaks: a literature review

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