Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of ichthyoplankton in the Yangtze Estuary, China

Abstract

Aim: Species distribution models (SDMs) are an effective tool to explore the potential distribution of terrestrial, freshwater and marine organisms; however, SDMs have been seldom used to model ichthyoplankton distributions, and thus, our understanding of how larval stages of fishes will respond to climate change is still limited. Here, we developed SDMs to explore potential impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of ichthyoplankton. Location: Yangtze Estuary, China.Methods: Using long-term ichthyoplankton survey data and a large set of marine predictor variables, we developed ensemble SDMs for five abundant ichthyoplankton species in the Yangtze Estuary (Coilia mystus, Hypoatherina valenciennei, Larimichthys polyactis, Salanx ariakensis and Chelidonichthys spinosus). Then, we projected their habitat suitability under present and future climate conditions. Results:The ensemble SDMs had good predictive performance and were successful in estimating the known distributions of the five species. Model projections highlighted two contrasting patterns of response to future climates: while C. mystus will likely expand its range, the ranges of the other four species will likely contract and shift northward.Main conclusions: According to our SDM projections, the five ichthyoplankton species that we tested in the Yangtze Estuary are likely to respond differently to future climate changes. These projected different responses seemingly reflect the differential functional attributes and life-history strategies of these species. To the extent that climate change emerges as a critical driver of the future distribution of these species, our findings provide an important roadmap for designing future conservation strategies for ichthyoplankton in this region. K E Y W O R D Sclimate change responses, distribution range shifts, ensemble forecasting, fish larvae, habitat suitability, species distribution modelling | 127 ZHANG et Al.

The impact of climate change on westernPlethodonsalamanders’ distribution

“…Yet, such modeling lacks quantification of a species’ ability to disperse, ignores potential for evolutionary change, and fails to account for biotic impacts, assuming that climate is the greatest driving factor of a species distribution (Jackson & Sax, 2010; Saupe et al., 2012; Soberón et al., 2007). Despite these limitations, such modeling efforts are beneficial in order to determine the validity of various predictions in the future (Esser et al., 2019; Zhang et al., 2019). Finally, in order to computationally assess a species’ niche with fidelity, many of the aforementioned factors could be used together.…”

“…Despite these limitations, such modeling efforts are beneficial in order to determine the validity of various predictions in the future (Esser et al, 2019;Zhang et al, 2019). Finally, in order to computationally assess a species' niche with fidelity, many of the aforementioned factors could be used together.…”

“…Current geographic distributions certainly play a role in a species response to climate change and an understanding of the limitations of species will help predict how easily that species may disperse into new territory (Peterman & Semlitsch, 2014). Furthermore, projecting the environmental envelope of a species onto future climate models has been used to assess the available habitat and dispersal corridors under climate change for conservation purposes (Esser et al., 2019; Zellmer et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2019). If a species suitable habitat shrinks with changing conditions, as we expect to be the case in salamanders, they may be at higher risk of extinction (Thomas et al., 2004).…”

“…We compare the environmental limitations across species with the expectation that each species will have a unique environmental envelope. This can be particularly useful because it is possible that not all species will respond to climate change similarly (Pucko et al., 2011; Zhang et al., 2019). Next, we project the current species environmental envelope onto future climate models to gain information about where these species may shift their ranges to overcome the increase in global temperature as this information may inform land‐use policy (Brown & Yoder, 2015; Wilting et al., 2010).…”

Endemic Juniperus Montane Species Facing Extinction Risk under Climate Change in Southwest China: Integrative Approach for Conservation Assessment and Prioritization

“…We projected each of the models under the current and future climate scenarios using 70% of the training data and 30% for evaluation [ 43 ]. The most effective SDMs require data on both species presence and available environmental conditions (pseudo-absence data); thus, for each species, the number of pseudo-absences was randomly sampled and equaled ten times the number of presences [ 44 , 45 ].…”