Modelling the potential distribution of endangered, endemic Hibiscus brackenridgei on Oahu to assess the impacts of climate change and prioritize conservation efforts.

Abstract

In the Hawaiian dry forest, 45% of all tropical dry forest trees and shrubs are on the federal threatened and endangered species list. Research is needed to understand the current range of these endangered species, the factors that affect their current and future distributions, and ultimately, identify areas where the most successful restoration can be undertaken. This research uses species distribution modelling to predict the potential range of Hibiscus brackenridgei, the state flower of Hawaii and a federally endangered species found on Oahu. We used presence data and the modelling algorithm Maxent to model the current potential distribution of H. brackenridgei, identify climate and environmental variables that influence the species’ distribution, and model the species’ predicted future distribution based on a range of projected climate change scenarios. Statistical analysis suggests that the Maxent models accurately predict the species’ distribution, and therefore, may be useful for conservation management. Comparing the current model with the future models of changes for 2060-2089, changes in the potential niche of H. brackenridgei only range by -4% to 14%. This suggests that the predicted changes in climate, under both low (B2a) and high (A2a) SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) global emissions scenarios, may not significantly impact the future distribution of H. brackenridgei on Oahu. We identified a total of 115 km2 of very highly (≥ 0.70) and highly (≥ 0.50) suitable habitat which represents potential areas where restoration projects could be implemented. This research suggests that threats like habitat loss, fire, invasive species, and grazing may be more important than climate for the future conservation of Hawaiian dry forest species.

Predictive species distribution model of two endemic kangaroo rats from Mexico: Dipodomys ornatus and D. phillipsii (Rodentia: Heteromyidae)

“…Data were reclassified using the software ArcGis v9.2 (ESRI 2006;Pliscoff and Fuentes-Castillo 2011). Some previous studies of threatened species (Aguilar-Soto et al 2015;Rovzar et al 2013) established ranges of probability of occurrence based on the distribution of species. The 0.7 to 1 range indicates high probability of occurrence, where most geographic records are located; 0.5 to 0.7 indicates medium probability, including the remaining records; and finally threshold to 0.5 represents low probability of occurrence.…”

Spatial conservation planning framework for assessing conservation opportunities in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil

“…Species distribution modeling, also referred to as ecological niche or habitat suitability modeling, has increasingly been used to address a wide range of conservation issues (Gillespie, Foody, Rocchini, Giorgi, & Saatchi, 2008; Guisan & Thuiller, 2005; Rovzar et al 2013). We constructed habitat suitability models for 23 birds at a 1 km pixel resolution in the SMBC using the modeling algorithm, Maxent (Phillips, 2008; Phillips, Anderson, & Schapire, 2006).…”

Modeling the Potential Distribution of Picea chihuahuana Martínez, an Endangered Species at the Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico

“…In this regard, species distribution models serve as important tools in the analysis of potential habitat of species, particularly in studies involving species with narrow distribution ranges and special habitat requirements [5,30,32], such as P. chihuahuana. In this study, the models generated by MaxEnt at three scales (national, state and local) performed well in estimating the potential distribution of P. chihuahuana.…”

“…Due to the fact that the logistic output of MaxEnt generates continuous values of probability of occurrence, ranges of probability of P. chihuahuana presence were established. As in a previous study on an endangered species [30], we set the ranges of probability based on the P. chihuahuana distribution. The range 0.7 to 1 as high suitable and where most of the records of this species presence are located, 0.5-0.7 as suitable and where the rest of records were located.…”