Modelling the pandemic: attuning models to their contexts

Abstract

The evidence produced in mathematical models plays a key role in shaping policy decisions in pandemics. A key question is therefore how well pandemic models relate to their implementation contexts. Drawing on the cases of Ebola and influenza, we map how sociological and anthropological research contributes in the modelling of pandemics to consider lessons for COVID-19. We show how models detach from their implementation contexts through their connections with global narratives of pandemic response, and how sociological and anthropological research can help to locate models differently. This potentiates multiple models of pandemic response attuned to their emerging situations in an iterative and adaptive science. We propose a more open approach to the modelling of pandemics which envisages the model as an intervention of deliberation in situations of evolving uncertainty. This challenges the ‘business-as-usual’ of evidence-based approaches in global health by accentuating all science, within and beyond pandemics, as ‘emergent’ and ‘adaptive’.

Post-pandemic transformations: How and why COVID-19 requires us to rethink development

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Pandemic politics—lessons for solar geoengineering

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“…But the challenge of translating model knowledge into real-world actions also contributes. For example, the reproduction number has been mobilized in policy as a population-wide metric in some jurisdictions 5 . Climate policy too has become focused on a single metric, global average temperature 6 .…”

COVID-19 observations and accompanying dataset of non-pharmaceutical interventions across U.S. universities, March 2020

“…The variation in timing and alignment with public health declarations show the value in a national dataset. Pandemic models require local differentiation and adaptation once released, and understanding how NPIs are interpreted by institutions that implement them needs to be further studied [15]. Roughly 73% of universities moved to on-line learning over a three-day period, which may indicate institutional isomorphism.…”