Modelling the non-linear multiple-lag effects of ambient temperature on mortality in Santiago and Palermo: a constrained segmented distributed lag approach

Muggeo, Vito M. R.; Hajat, Shakoor

doi:10.1136/oem.2007.038653

Cited by 79 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 42 publications

(53 reference statements)

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“…Significant associations between cold temperatures and mortality appeared after 3 days and lasted longer than the associations between high temperatures and mortality, which were acute and of short duration. This pattern has been evidenced in previous studies, in which the heat effects were mostly immediate whereas the cold effects were delayed by several weeks (Muggeo and Hajat 2009). This suggests that early warning systems for severe weather should take this immediate heat effect and delayed cold effect into account.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

Effects of temperature on mortality in Hong Kong: a time series analysis

Chan

2014

Int J Biometeorol

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Although interest in assessing the impacts of hot temperature and mortality in Hong Kong has increased, less evidence on the effect of cold temperature on mortality is available. We examined both the effects of heat and cold temperatures on daily mortality in Hong Kong for the last decade (2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011). A quasi-Poisson model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of temperatures on cause-specific and age-specific mortality.Non-linear effects of temperature on mortality were identified. The relative risk of non-accidental mortality associated with cold temperature (11.1°C, 1 st percentile of temperature) relative to 19.4°C(25 th percentile of temperature) was 1.17 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04, 1.29) for lags 0-13. The relative risk of non-accidental mortality associated with high temperature (31.5°C, 99 th percentile of temperature) relative to 27.8°C (75 th percentile of temperature) was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.17) for lags 0-3. In Hong Kong, extreme cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality. The effect of cold lasted longer and greater than that of heat. People older than 75 years were the most vulnerable group to cold temperature, while people aged 65-74 were the most vulnerable group to hot temperature.Our findings may have implications for developing intervention strategies for extreme cold and hot temperatures.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

Effects of temperature on mortality in Hong Kong: a time series analysis

Chan

2014

Int J Biometeorol

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“…The lag periods presented in the equation (1) were identified based on the literature review and represent the maximum plausible days to improve the precision of the DLNM model. For example, lower temperature normally shows longer impacts on disease outcome than higher temperature (Bhaskaran et al, 2010;Hajat et al, 2005;Muggeo and Hajat, 2009). Thus, we adopted a longer 30 days lag period in the model, to cover both the effect of high and low temperature.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hospital admissions predominantly occur within a few days after the exposure to high temperature (Fernández-Raga et al, 2010;Schwartz et al, 2004). Apparently hot weather has a quicker impact on health than cold weather (Bhaskaran et al, 2010;Braga et al, 2002;Hajat et al, 2005;Muggeo and Hajat, 2009;Nastos and Matzarakis, 2006;Pattenden et al, 2003). The susceptibility rate of a population varies according to disease and geographical location and exhibits different delayed effects depending on the season of the year (Pudpong and Hajat, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Populations with a temperate climate generally show non-linear U, V, N or J shaped with disease frequencies (Braga et al, 2002;Muggeo and Hajat, 2009;Pattenden et al, 2003;Pauli and Rizzi, 2008). The lowest point of these curves (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate fluctuations are indirectly linked to many prevalent poor human health outcomes from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heat waves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases, increased food poisoning and malnutrition from crop failures (Patz et al, 2005). Respiratory diseases are the most climate affected diseases and among the leading causes of death worldwide (Muggeo and Hajat, 2009;Schwartz et al, 2004). Beside health, climate change also effects the environment and the global economy to a great extent (Luo and Wu, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Towards a threshold climate for emergency lower respiratory hospital admissions

Islam

Chaussalet

Koizumi

2017

Environmental Research

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Identification of 'cut-points' or thresholds of climate factors would play a crucial role in alerting risks of climate change and providing guidance to policymakers. This study investigated 2 a 'Climate Threshold' for emergency hospital admissions of chronic lower respiratory diseases by using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We analysed a unique longitudinal dataset relative humidity (≤ 40%), high Pm10 level (≥70-µg/m 3 ), low wind speed (≤ 2 knots) and high rainfall (≥30mm). Beyond the threshold values, a significantly higher number of emergency admissions due to lower respiratory problems would be expected within the following 2-3 days after the climate shift in the Greater London. The approach will be useful to initiate 'region and disease specific' climate mitigation plans. It will help identify spatial hot spots and the most sensitive areas and population due to climate change, and will eventually lead towards a diversified health warning system tailored to specific climate zones and populations.

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Extreme temperature and precipitation events in March 2015 in central and northern Chile

Barrett

Campos

Veloso³

et al. 2016

JGR Atmospheres

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From 18 to 27 March 2015, northern, central, and southern Chile experienced a series of extreme hydrometeorological events. First, the highest surface air temperature ever recorded in Santiago (with reliable records dating to 1877), 36.8°C at Quinta Normal, was measured at 15:47 local time on 20 March 2015. Immediately following this high heat event, an extreme precipitation event, with damaging streamflows from precipitation totals greater than 45 mm, occurred in the semiarid and hyperarid Atacama regions. Finally, concurrent with the heavy precipitation event, extremely warm temperatures were recorded throughout southern Chile. These events were examined from a synoptic perspective with the goal of identifying forcing mechanisms and potential interaction between each analysis which provides operational context by which to identify and predict similar events in the future. Primary findings were as follows: (1) record warm temperatures in central Chile resulted from anomalous lower troposphere ridging and easterly downslope flow, both of which developed in response to an anomalous midtroposphere ridge‐trough pattern; (2) a cutoff low with anomalous heights near one standard deviation below normal slowly moved east and was steered ashore near 25°S by circulation around a very strong ridge (anomalies more than 3 standard deviations above normal) centered near 60°S; (3) anomalously high precipitable water content (20 mm above climatological norms) over the Peruvian Bight region was advected southward and eastward ahead of the cutoff low by low‐level northwesterly flow, greatly enhancing observed precipitation over northern Chile.

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Modelling the non-linear multiple-lag effects of ambient temperature on mortality in Santiago and Palermo: a constrained segmented distributed lag approach

Abstract: Our approach provides a flexible and precise method to quantify health effects of both heat and cold exposure at individual lags and to model the overall pattern of the delayed effect.

Cited by 79 publications

References 42 publications

Effects of temperature on mortality in Hong Kong: a time series analysis

Effects of temperature on mortality in Hong Kong: a time series analysis

Towards a threshold climate for emergency lower respiratory hospital admissions

Extreme temperature and precipitation events in March 2015 in central and northern Chile

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