Modelling the natural gas dynamics in the Southern Cone of Latin America

Chavez-Rodriguez, Mauro F.; Dias, Luís; Simões, Sofia; Seixas, Júlia; Giarola, Sara; Szklo, Alexandre; Lucena, André F.P.

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.05.061

Cited by 22 publications

(12 citation statements)

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“…It is considered to be a more environmentally friendly clean fuel than other fossil fuels such as coal and crude oil [61]. Due to the relatively low emissions of carbon dioxide and local air pollutants, it is a promising transition energy source between higher-carbon fossil fuels and renewable energy sources [62]. On the other hand offshore oil and gas activities are associated with many potential impacts to the environment [56,63].…”

Section: Pestel Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

The Application of Analytical Hierarchy Process in Combination with PESTEL-SWOT Analysis to Assess the Hydrocarbons Sector in Cyprus

et al. 2019

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Natural gas reserves have been recently found offshore of Cyprus. Hence, a new energy sector is under development, creating potential for raised welfare for the small insular EU member. Several social and economic benefits could be achieved from the resources’ exploitation. However, natural gas is a non-renewable energy source, connected with the major environmental issues of fossil fuels. The research goal of this work was to evaluate the sustainability of the new hydrocarbons sector. This was attained using a set of indicators, developed from the combination of PESTEL (Political, Economic, Technical, Social, Environmental, Legal) and SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analyses. These were quantified using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) weighting method. They were pairwise compared and evaluated, resulting to a size for each one. The judgements of four evaluators, representing diverse interested parties, were used. The strengths and opportunities of the sector were found to be more than the weaknesses and threats. The relevant indicators quantification demonstrates also that the value of the positives is higher than the negatives. Therefore, if the first are enhanced and the latter are mitigated, there is sustainability potential. The sectors environmental issues are evaluated as the most important, followed by the economic. The other takes lower but comparatively significant values, and must be handled accordingly. These results lead to useful conclusions and could be exploited for decision-making and policies formulation.

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Section: Pestel Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

The Application of Analytical Hierarchy Process in Combination with PESTEL-SWOT Analysis to Assess the Hydrocarbons Sector in Cyprus

et al. 2019

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“…In terms of imports, the country received on average 29.2 mcm/day (10.7 bcm/year), with intakes from the Bolivian pipeline responsible for 83.5% of the total, while the rest was covered by liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, mainly coming from Nigeria, the United Sates and Angola ( Figure 2). Notwithstanding, natural gas is expected to grow considerably in the following decade [24]. According to the IEA [25], even under carbon constrained scenarios, natural gas demand would increase at least 25% by 2040, mainly due to new gas-fired power plants that could act as support for the wide deployment of variable renewable energy.…”

Section: The Role Of Natural Gas In Brazil's Energy MIXmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The model used a bottom-up approach to simulate building, industrial, transportation and power sector gas demand. Later, Chávez-Rodríguez et al [24] added the TIMES optimisation modelling framework to optimise natural gas supply and investigate energy systems dynamics in the southern Cone of Latin America (considering Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, and Chile). This integrated model provided a better insight on future gas infrastructure considering interconnected markets.…”

Section: Existing Literature 21 General Gas Modelling Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling cost-effective pathways for natural gas infrastructure: A southern Brazil case study

et al. 2019

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Currently, natural gas in Brazil represents around 12.9% of the primary energy supply, with consistent annual growth during the last decade. However, Brazil is entering a time of uncertainty regarding future gas supply, mainly as import from Bolivia is being renegotiated. As such, diversification of gas supply sources and routes need to be considered. Energy systems and infrastructure models are essential tools in assisting energy planning decisions and policy programmes at regional and international levels. In this study, a novel combination of a simulationbased integrated assessment model (MUSE-South_Brazil) and the recently-developed Gas INfrastructure Optimisation model (GINO) is presented. The Brazilian region represented by the five southern states served by the Bolivian gas pipeline (GASBOL) has been investigated. Modelled projections suggest that regional gas demand would increase from 38.8 mcm/day in 2015 to 104.3 mcm/day by 2050, mainly driven by the increasing demand in the industry and power sectors. Therefore existing regional gas infrastructure would be insufficient to cover future demands. Three different renegotiation scenarios between Brazil and Bolivia were modelled, obtaining distinct costoptimal infrastructure expansion pathways. Depending on the scenario, the model expects gas demand to be covered by other supply options, such as an increase in pre-salt production, LNG imports and imports from a new Argentinian pipeline.

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“…In addition to global gas trade models, a number of studies have addressed specific (and regional) techno-economic questions relating to the gas industry, such as optimal water management in shale plays [32] [33], or the allocation of mobile plants to monetise associated gas [34], or the prospects for gas sup-ply and usage in the southern cone of Latin America [35]. Of relevance when modelling future production costs, a comprehensive technical assessment of US Shale gas [36] emphasises the importance of "learning-by-doing" in terms of extraction efficiencies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%