Modelling the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on South African livelihoods

Abstract

PurposeThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-induced declining economic prospects and accompanying economic shocks present socioeconomic vulnerabilities for developing economies at the tranches of poverty, unemployment and minimal social security. South Africa is one of the countries that have the most precarious societies in developing nations due to the triple challenges of unemployment, poverty and inequality. As such, this paper investigates the impact of the pandemic on South African livelihoods.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses secondary data obtained from the National Income Dynamics Study – Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey (NIDS-CRAM) Wave 1 dataset to analyse the impact of COVID-19 on South African livelihoods.FindingsThe findings reveal that COVID-19 amplified the country's poor and vulnerable population's socioeconomic conditions because of the stringent Level 5 lockdown regulations that barred low-income households from making a livelihood. It further revealed that low-income households, who are the least educated, Black African, female and marginalized, were disproportionally socioeconomically affected by losing the main household income.Research limitations/implicationsThe research is limited in that it used secondary quantitative data that relied on a telephonic survey during the COVID-19 lockdown period.Practical implicationsThis study offers a policy suggestion that increasing social grants during the pandemic will not have any significant impact on the livelihoods of many South Africans unless distributional inequalities are reduced.Social implicationsThe government needs to develop welfarist policies to protect the most vulnerable in society to limit the socioeconomic impact of pandemics and take proactive policy measures to reduce unemployment and income inequalities in the country.Originality/valueThe paper contributes to understanding the precarious nature of low-income households.

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