Modelling the impact of predicted climate change on landslide frequency and magnitude in SE England

Collison, Andrew; Wade, Stephen; Griffiths, Jim; Dehn, Martin

doi:10.1016/s0013-7952(99)00121-0

Cited by 156 publications

(77 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Previous studies typically have analysed the impacts of uncertainty related to slope characteristics and future climate independently. For example, Dehn and Buma (1999), Collison et al (2000) and Ciabatta et al (2016) consider the impacts of climate change on slope stability, but ignore uncertainty around soil properties; while Rubio et al (2004) account for uncertainty introduced by slope hydrology and geotechnical properties, but ignore uncertainty relating to design storms. However, our results suggest that the failure to consider both sources of uncertainty simultaneously may lead to a significant underestimation of slope susceptibility to landslides under potential climate change.…”

Section: Can Deep Uncertainty In Future Rainfall Exceed Other Uncertamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In these approaches, climate change projections of a general circulation model (GCM) are downscaled to derive local rainfall intensities and frequencies, as well as other climatic variables. These scenarios are then used to drive a slope stability model in a top-down manner (Collison et al, 2000;Melchiorre and Frattini, 2012). Studies that have attempted to quantify the uncertainty in the estimation of climate variables derived in this manner have found them to be prohibitively large in many cases (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dealing with deep uncertainties in landslide modelling for disaster risk reduction under climate change

Almeida

Holcombe

Pianosi

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Landslides have large negative economic and societal impacts, including loss of life and damage to infrastructure. Slope stability assessment is a vital tool for landslide risk management, but high levels of uncertainty often challenge its usefulness. Uncertainties are associated with the numerical model used to assess slope stability and its parameters, with the data characterizing the geometric, geotechnic and hydrologic properties of the slope, and with hazard triggers (e.g. rainfall). Uncertainties associated with many of these factors are also likely to be exacerbated further by future climatic and socio-economic changes, such as increased urbanization and resultant land use change. In this study, we illustrate how numerical models can be used to explore the uncertain factors that influence potential future landslide hazard using a bottom-up strategy. Specifically, we link the Combined Hydrology And Stability Model (CHASM) with sensitivity analysis and Classification And Regression Trees (CART) to identify critical thresholds in slope properties and climatic (rainfall) drivers that lead to slope failure. We apply our approach to a slope in the Caribbean, an area that is naturally susceptible to landslides due to a combination of high rainfall rates, steep slopes, and highly weathered residual soils. For this particular slope, we find that uncertainties regarding some slope properties (namely thickness and effective cohesion of topsoil) are as important as the uncertainties related to future rainfall conditions. Furthermore, we show that 89 % of the expected behaviour of the studied slope can be characterized based on only two variables -the ratio of topsoil thickness to cohesion and the ratio of rainfall intensity to duration.

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Section: Can Deep Uncertainty In Future Rainfall Exceed Other Uncertamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dealing with deep uncertainties in landslide modelling for disaster risk reduction under climate change

Almeida

Holcombe

Pianosi

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…As a result, researchers are becoming more and more interested in understanding possible correlations between slope instabilities and climate change (Collison et al, 2000;Jaedicke et al, 2008;Jakob and Lambert, 2009). Particular attention has been focused on the role played by permafrost degradation, and the consequent thawing of the ice filling the rock joints (Fischer et al, 2006;Gruber and Haeberli, 2007;Chiarle and Mortara, 2008;Huggel, 2009).…”

Section: Recent Climatic Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Microseismic activity analysis for the study of the rupture mechanisms in unstable rock masses

Amitrano

Arattano

Chiarle

et al. 2010

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Rockfalls are common instabilities in alpine areas and can cause significant damage. Since high mountains have been affected by an increasing number of these phenomena in the last years, a possible correlation with permafrost degradation induced by climate change has been hypothesized.To investigate this topic, a monitoring system, made of 5 triaxial geophones and 1 thermometer, was installed in 2007 at the Carrel hut (3829 m a.s.l., Matterhorn, Northwestern Alps), in the frame of the Interreg IIIA Alcotra project n. 196 "Permadataroc".The preliminary data processing relates to the classification of recorded signals, the identification of the significant microseismic events and the analysis of their distribution in time and space. The first results indicated a possible correlation between clusters of events and temperature trend, and a concentration of events in specific sectors of the rock mass.Research is still in progress. The recording of data for a longer period is planned to fully understand seasonal trends and spatial distribution of microseismic activity, and possible relations with permafrost degradation. Nevertheless, the preliminary observations prove that the monitoring system can detect noises generated by rock slope deformation. Once fully developed, this technique could become a helpful tool for early warning and preliminary stability assessments.

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“…These conditions are responsible for triggering erosion processes, debris flows and landslides (Collison et al 2000;Lu, Gsodt 2013) and they can represent preparatory factors for flood triggering (jomelli et al 2009). Climatic modifications also cause a change in land cover due to different rainfall and temperature conditions.…”

Section: Impact Of Soil Processes Induced By Climatic Changes On Socimentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on the Alpine ecosystem: an overview with focus on the soil

Chersich¹,

Rejšek²,

Vranová³

et al. 2015

J. For. Sci.

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ABSTRACT:The Alpine ecosystem is very sensitive to climatic changes, which have an influence on glaciers, snow, vegetation and soils. The aim of this review is to illustrate the effects of global change on the Alpine soil ecosystem, which is an optimal marker to record them. The manuscript enhances our understanding of the global change effect on the Alpine environment: on morphology, on ice, on vegetation and points out how the cycles of soil nutrients equilibrium have been changed with a direct effect on soils that support plant species. The changes in cryosphere, glacier reduction and periglacial environment as glaciers retreat, decrease in the snow cover extent and earlier snowmelt, determine an effect on soils (on the structure, organic matter and humus forms, soil processes and soil types) from the top of the Alpine horizon to the bottom. The processes induced by climate change (such as erosion and tree line shifting) have a direct effect on water balance that can be observed on soil profile characters with an effect on upward migration, change in phenology, extensive losses of species. The equilibrium of the biogeochemical cycles has been changed and this has a direct effect on soils that support plant species.

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Modelling the impact of predicted climate change on landslide frequency and magnitude in SE England

Cited by 156 publications

References 9 publications

Dealing with deep uncertainties in landslide modelling for disaster risk reduction under climate change

Dealing with deep uncertainties in landslide modelling for disaster risk reduction under climate change

Microseismic activity analysis for the study of the rupture mechanisms in unstable rock masses

Climate change impacts on the Alpine ecosystem: an overview with focus on the soil

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