Modelling the impact of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on river microbial water quality

Islam, M. M. Majedul; Iqbal, Muhammad Shahid; Leemans, Rik; Hofstra, Nynke

doi:10.1016/j.ijheh.2017.11.006

Cited by 52 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Studies have shown that the extent of climate change impacts largely depend on assumptions made about socio-economic conditions [35,70,71]. Others have argued that applying different socio-economic scenarios is more effective than applying different climate change scenarios [72][73][74]. In this context, the global research community has developed Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), which provide a flexible framework for local scenario development, with quantitative and qualitative descriptions, that can be used in adaptation and vulnerability studies.…”

Section: Future Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing the Food, Water, and Energy Nexus for Food and Energy Scenarios with the World Trade Model

Cazcarro

Dilekli

2021

Water

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The food, energy, and water (FEW) nexus has gained increased attention, resulting in numerous studies on management approaches. Themes of resource use, and their subsequent scarcity and economic rents, which are within the application domain of the World Trade Model, are ripe for study, with the continuing development of forward- and backward-facing economic data. Scenarios of future food and energy demand, relating to supply chains, as well as direct and indirect resource uses, are modelled in this paper. While it is possible to generate a substantial number of economic and environmental scenarios, our focus is on the development of an overarching approach involving a range of scenarios. We intend to establish a benchmark of possibilities in the context of the debates surrounding the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21) and the Green New Deal. Our approach draws heavily from the existing literature on international agreements and targets, notably that of COP21, whose application we associate with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP). Relevant factor uses and scarcity rent increases are found and localized, e.g., on the optimal qualities of water, minerals, and land. A clear policy implication is that, in all scenarios, processes of energy transition, raw material use reduction, and recycling must be strengthened.

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Section: Future Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing the Food, Water, and Energy Nexus for Food and Energy Scenarios with the World Trade Model

Cazcarro

Dilekli

2021

Water

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“…The implications of climate-associated changes for microbial water quality in general, and FIB-pathogen relationships in particular, are profound, as these parameters have a dominant influence on the fate of waterborne pathogens and FIB (Patz et al 2008). Thus, the pressures generated by human population growth and global climate change have strong potential to accelerate issues of microbial pathogens in the beach sand water continuum in the 21 st century (Islam et al 2018).…”

Section: Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of a Changing Earth on Microbial Dynamics and Human Health Risks in the Continuum between Beach Water and Sand

Weiskerger

Brandão

Ahmed

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Humans may be exposed to microbial pathogens at recreational beaches via environmental sources, such as water, sand, and aerosols. Although infectious disease risk from exposure to waterborne pathogens has been an active area of research for decades, sand is a relatively unexplored reservoir of pathogens and fecal indicator bacteria (FIB). Beach sand and water habitats provide unique advantages and challenges to pathogen introduction, growth, and persistence, as well as continuous exchange between habitats. Models of FIB and pathogen fate and transport in sandy beach habitats can help predict the risk of infectious disease from recreational water use, but filling knowledge gaps such as decay rates and potential for microbial growth in beach habitats is necessary for accurate modeling. Climatic variability, whether natural or anthropogenically-induced, adds complexity to predictive modeling, but may increase human exposure to waterborne pathogens via extreme weather events, warming of water bodies and sea level rise in many regions. The popularity of human recreational beach activities, combined with predicted climate change scenarios, could amplify the risk of human exposure to pathogens and related illnesses. Other global change trends such as increased population growth and urbanization are expected to exacerbate contamination events and the predicted impacts of increasing levels of waterborne pathogens on human health. Such changes will alter microbial population dynamics in beach habitats, and will consequently affect the assumptions and relationships used in population models and quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). Here, we discuss the literature on microbial population and transport dynamics in sand-water continuum habitats at beaches, how these dynamics can be modeled, and how climate change and other anthropogenic influences (e.g., land use, urbanization) should be considered when using and developing more holistic, beachshed-based models.

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“…Like global N models, global pathogen models rely on a common modeling design [ 40 – 43 ], are coarse-grained (0.5 by 0.5 degree), do not account for inputs from non-sewered populations, and do not map surface water flows to coastal ecosystems. Furthermore, while case studies can provide context for specific details–such as how fecal indicator bacteria respond to environmental conditions [ 44 ], the effect of future climate change and socioeconomic conditions [ 45 ] and continental-scale sensitivity and uncertainty analysis [ 46 ] global pathogen wastewater studies report results at national or larger scales. This crucially constrains our ability to assess the magnitude and distribution of coastal nutrient and pathogen stressors and develop regional and local policy recommendations and actions, much less compare fine-grained pathogen impacts to nutrient impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping global inputs and impacts from of human sewage in coastal ecosystems

et al. 2021

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Coastal marine ecosystems face a host of pressures from both offshore and land-based human activity. Research on terrestrial threats to coastal ecosystems has primarily focused on agricultural runoff, specifically showcasing how fertilizers and livestock waste create coastal eutrophication, harmful algae blooms, or hypoxic or anoxic zones. These impacts not only harm coastal species and ecosystems but also impact human health and economic activities. Few studies have assessed impacts of human wastewater on coastal ecosystems and community health. As such, we lack a comprehensive, fine-resolution, global assessment of human sewage inputs that captures both pathogens and nutrient flows to coastal waters and the potential impacts on coastal ecosystems. To address this gap, we use a new high-resolution geospatial model to measure and map nitrogen (N) and pathogen—fecal indicator organisms (FIO)—inputs from human sewage for ~135,000 watersheds globally. Because solutions depend on the source, we separate nitrogen and pathogen inputs from sewer, septic, and direct inputs. Our model indicates that wastewater adds 6.2Tg nitrogen into coastal waters, which is approximately 40% of total nitrogen from agriculture. Of total wastewater N, 63% (3.9Tg N) comes from sewered systems, 5% (0.3Tg N) from septic, and 32% (2.0Tg N) from direct input. We find that just 25 watersheds contribute nearly half of all wastewater N, but wastewater impacts most coastlines globally, with sewered, septic, and untreated wastewater inputs varying greatly across watersheds and by country. Importantly, model results find that 58% of coral and 88% of seagrass beds are exposed to wastewater N input. Across watersheds, N and FIO inputs are generally correlated. However, our model identifies important fine-grained spatial heterogeneity that highlight potential tradeoffs and synergies essential for management actions. Reducing impacts of nitrogen and pathogens on coastal ecosystems requires a greater focus on where wastewater inputs vary across the planet. Researchers and practitioners can also overlay these global, high resolution, wastewater input maps with maps describing the distribution of habitats and species, including humans, to determine the where the impacts of wastewater pressures are highest. This will help prioritize conservation efforts.Without such information, coastal ecosystems and the human communities that depend on them will remain imperiled.

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Modelling the impact of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on river microbial water quality

Cited by 52 publications

References 32 publications

Developing the Food, Water, and Energy Nexus for Food and Energy Scenarios with the World Trade Model

Developing the Food, Water, and Energy Nexus for Food and Energy Scenarios with the World Trade Model

Impacts of a Changing Earth on Microbial Dynamics and Human Health Risks in the Continuum between Beach Water and Sand

Mapping global inputs and impacts from of human sewage in coastal ecosystems

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