Modelling the growth of young individuals of Pinus nigra on thin carbonate soils under climate change in Hungary

Abstract

Climate change highly impacts on tree growth and also threatens the forest of the karstic terrains. From the 1980s the frequency of decay events of the Pinus nigra Arnold forests showed a marked increase in Hungary. To understanding the vulnerability of Pinus nigra forests to climate change on shallow karstic soils in continental-sub Mediterranean climatic conditions we developed the study of three sampled population in the typical karstic landscape of Veszprém in North Transdanubia. We built our model on non-invasive approach using the annual growth of the individuals. MPI Echam5 climate model and as aridity index the Thornthwaite Agrometeorological Index were used. Our results indicate that soil thickness up to 11 cm has a major influence on the main growth intensity, however, aridity determines the annual growth rate. Our model results showed that the increasing decay frequency in the last decades was a parallel change to the decreasing growth rate of pines. The climate model predicts the similar, increased decay frequency to the presents. Our results can be valid for a wider areas of the periphery of Mediterranean climate zone while the annual-growth based model is a cost-effective and simple method to study the vitality of pine trees in a given area.

The Comparison of the Potential Effect of Climate Change on the Segment Growth of Fraxinus Ornus, Pinus Nigra and Ailanthus Altissima on Shallow, Calcareous Soils

“…Model results showed that the rising decay frequency of Pinus nigra individuals in the last decades was a parallel change to the decreasing growth rate of pines due to the increasing aridity trend in the Veszprém karst plateau (Trájer et al 2015). As drought inhibits growth (Chiatante et al, 2006;Kramer and Turner 1980), in this paper, we investigate the effect of the sub-regional drought trends and the foreseen change of precipitation and temperature on the stem growth of young individuals of Fraxinus ornus and its two most important competitors: Pinus nigra and Ailanthus altissima.…”