Modelling the G20

McKibbin, Warwick J.; Triggs, Adam

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3167666

Cited by 12 publications

(11 citation statements)

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“…The version of the G-Cubed model (G20) used in this paper can be found in McKibbin and Triggs (2018), which extends the original model documented in McKibbin and Wilcoxen (1999, 2013. The model has six sectors and 24 countries and regions.…”

Section: The G-cubed Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios

McKibbin

Fernando

2021

Asian Economic Papers

697

458

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COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. The evolution of the disease and its economic impacts are highly uncertain making formulation of appropriate macroeconomic policy responses challenging. This paper explores seven plausible scenarios of COVID-19 and the macroeconomic outcomes using a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model. The results demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short-run. Economic costs could be significantly avoided with greater investment in public health systems in all economies, particularly in economies where healthcare systems are less developed and population density is high.

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Section: The G-cubed Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios

McKibbin

Fernando

2021

Asian Economic Papers

697

458

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“…By simulating a global economic model, McKibbin and Fernando (2020) demonstrated seven possible scenarios regarding the outbreak of COVID‐19 and its economic consequences on GDP loss. The G‐cubed model comprising two additional models, that is, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) model as propounded by McKibbin and Wilcoxen (1999, 2013) and later extended by McKibbin and Triggs (2018) to the G‐20 economies. The economic effect of COVID‐19 on economic activities in the Middle East states has been displayed in Table 1.…”

Section: Economic Arguments Behind Covid‐19mentioning

confidence: 99%

When China sneezes, middle east states get the cold

Rakshit

2020

J Public Affairs

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The main objective of this study is to extend an economic perspective on the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic in the Middle East economies. The COVID-19 pandemic, which was initially considered as a Chinese-centric problem, has now affected more than 200 countries worldwide. The impact of the virus on human sufferings is unaccountable. However, economists consider the repercussion of the outbreak as contagious economically as it has been medically. Throughout this paper, we mainly address a few important research questions about the economic aspects of COVID-19. We further highlight three critical channels through which the economic effect of the outbreak can be assessed. Finally, we explain the case of Middle East states and demonstrate the pathways that explain the economic repercussion of this global pandemic on the region. We conclude the paper by providing a few policy recommendations for the Middle East economies to fight the crisis.

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“…This section uses the G‐Cubed (G20) model to simulate each of these policies individually, and then the implementation of these policies collectively, to explore whether they are effective in reducing global current account imbalances and, if so, at what cost. First, however, Section 3.13.1 gives an overview of the model, further details on which are available in McKibbin and Triggs ().…”

Section: Policies To Reduce Global Imbalancesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The following sections will elaborate further on some of these key features of the model, and further details are available in McKibbin and Triggs (). Sections 3.23.2, 3.33.3 and 3.43.4 will consider each the G20's policies for reducing global current account imbalances individually.…”

Section: Policies To Reduce Global Imbalancesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Section 33 explores whether the G20's policy agenda is the right one for reducing global imbalances and whether it might result in any unintended consequences. It introduces the G‐Cubed (G20) model: a multi‐country, multi‐sector, intertemporal computable general equilibrium model, detailed in McKibbin and Triggs (). Using this model, Section 33 simulates the impact of fiscal consolidation in the United States, increased infrastructure investment in Germany, increased consumption in China and the impact of all three policies occurring simultaneously.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rebalancing a lopsided global economy

Triggs

2019

World Economy

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The growth in global current account imbalances has produced a lopsided global economy, characterised by large lenders and large borrowers, large savers and large consumers, and large exporters and large importers. For many years, the G20 has committed to reducing these imbalances. But has it been successful? Are the G20's policy prescriptions for reducing these imbalances the right ones? And have countries altered their policies because of the discussions and commitments in the G20 or not? The paper assesses whether the G20 has achieved its goal of reducing global current account imbalances. It then uses the G‐Cubed (G20) model — a multi‐country, multi‐sector, intertemporal general equilibrium model — to assess the impacts of the G20's proposed policy agenda. It shows that the G20's policy prescriptions — reducing the fiscal deficit in the United States, increasing public infrastructure investment in Germany and increasing domestic consumption in China — are not necessarily effective in reducing current account imbalances and, when imbalances are reduced, it often comes at the cost of the real economy. Finally, the paper uses the results from in‐depth interviews with 61 policymakers from across all G20 countries — including Janet Yellen, Kevin Rudd, Ben Bernanke, Haruhiko Kuroda, Jack Lew, Mark Carney and 55 others — to explore whether the G20's focus on current account imbalances influences domestic policies. It finds that, while the G20's influence has been marginal, there are ways in which it could be strengthened. The paper concludes with a discussion on how the G20's agenda could be reformed to help reduce current account imbalances in the future.

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Modelling the G20

Cited by 12 publications

References 12 publications

The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios

The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios

When China sneezes, middle east states get the cold

Rebalancing a lopsided global economy

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