Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

Abstract

Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080-2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix-biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001-2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (-15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12-13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43-79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970-1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987-2004).

Thermal Niche Tracking and Future Distribution of Atlantic Mackerel Spawning in Response to Ocean Warming

“…Phenotypic and genotypic adaptation can also play an important role in species adaptation. Although, there is growing evidence for rapid adaptive evolution in response to climate change (Lavergne et al, 2010), ecological niche-based models, such as the one used in this study, ignore the adaptive potential of species (Villarino et al, 2015). Ecological processes such as competition, positive interactions, and trophic relationship and ecological processes such as dispersal and population dynamics are other factors that were not included in our models and which can affect rates of species range shifts (Lavergne et al, 2010).…”

“…Other uncertainties in our projections are due to the error propagation in the coupling of the hydroclimatic and biogeochemical model projections with our habitat model. In particular, high uncertainty still remains in the projections of the primary production (Chust et al, 2014) and zooplankton abundance (Villarino et al, 2015) in this area, which are key trophic levels for the Atlantic mackerel juveniles.…”

Mare Incognitum: A Glimpse into Future Plankton Diversity and Ecology Research

“…These attributes make them a key group for monitoring the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (Richardson, 2008). So far, SDMs have seldom been applied to study plankton biogeography, with only a handful of studies on phytoplankton (Irwin et al, 2012;Pinkernell and Beszteri, 2014;Brun et al, 2015;Rivero-Calle et al, 2015;Barton et al, 2016) and some more on zooplankton (e.g., Reygondeau and Beaugrand, 2011;Chust et al, 2014b;Villarino et al, 2015;Brun et al, 2016;Benedetti et al, in press). This is due not only to the limited data availability for model development, but also due to several unaddressed methodological issues.…”

Spatial Modeling of Calanus finmarchicus and Calanus helgolandicus: Parameter Differences Explain Differences in Biogeography

“…Both species are now moving north, which has caused C. helgolandicus to replace C. finmarchicus as the dominant calanoid copepod in the North Sea (Reid et al, 2003). Future temperature rises will likely cause this to be repeated further north (Villarino et al, 2015). We must therefore understand differences in the impacts of climate change on congeneric zooplankton species, so that we can anticipate changes in communities and their consequences.…”