Modelling the functional capacity losses of networks exposed to hazards

Lam, Juan Carlos; Heitzler, Magnus; Hackl, Jürgen; Adey, Bryan T.; Hurni, Lorenz

doi:10.1080/23789689.2018.1469357

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…The small amount of available data makes describing such relationship in a numerical form a challenging task. Some works (e.g., De Bruijin, 2005;Kok et al, 2005;Koks et al, 2012;Tariq et al, 2014;Li et al, 2016) have sought to numerically describe the relationship between damages and inundation depth. However, there are observed differences in the methods and results (e.g., some works bundled direct and indirect costs in their estimates), leading to the conclusion that these numerical relationships can only be applied to specific contexts and confined geographical areas.…”

Section: Road Section Inundationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating network related risks: A methodology and an application in the transport sector

Hackl

Lam

Heitzler

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Networks such as transportation, water, and power are critical lifelines for society. Managers plan and execute interventions to guarantee the operational state of their networks under various circumstances, including after the occurrence of (natural) hazard events. Creating an intervention program demands knowing the probable direct and indirect consequences (i.e., risk) of the various hazard events that could occur in order to be able to mitigate their effects. This paper introduces a methodology to support network managers in the quantification of the risk related to their networks. The methodology is centered on the integration of the spatial and temporal attributes of the events that need to be modeled to estimate the risk. Furthermore, the methodology supports the inclusion of the uncertainty of these events and the propagation of these uncertainties throughout the risk modeling. The methodology is implemented through a modular simulation engine that supports the updating and swapping of models according to the needs of network managers. This work demonstrates the usefulness of the methodology and simulation engine through an application to estimate the potential impact of floods and mudflows on a road network located in Switzerland. The application includes the modeling of (i) multiple time-varying hazard events; (ii) their physical and functional effects on network objects (i.e., bridges and road sections); (iii) the functional interrelationships of the affected objects; (iv) the resulting probable consequences in terms of expected costs of restoration, cost of traffic changes, and duration of network disruption; and (v) the restoration of the network.

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Section: Road Section Inundationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating network related risks: A methodology and an application in the transport sector

Hackl

Lam

Heitzler

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…The algorithm used to compute the changes in functional losses at the object level is presented in detail by Lam et al (2018). Changes occurred during the hazard event (due to time-varying intensity measures) and the restoration period (due Nat.…”

Section: Functional Loss Model For the Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Functional losses related to bridge local scour and pavement mudblocking during the hazard event period were estimated 5 based on novel functional capacity loss functions initially proposed by Lam and Adey (2016) and Lam et al (2018). Expected functional capacity losses were determined as functions of time-dependent hazard intensities Ξ t , derived damage state ds probabilities obtained from respective fragility functions, and functional capacity loss values λ n associated with the investigated damage states (please see Table 5).…”

Section: Functional Loss Model For Bridge Local Scour and Pavement Mumentioning

confidence: 99%

“…By selecting a risk curve of a specific percentile, it was possible to estimate the corresponding annualized risk. Figure 4 shows how the rainfall (source event), flood and mudflows (hazard events), damages (infrastructure object events), 15 reduction in speed limits and road capacity (network events) and traffic flow (societal event) change during the occurrence period of the hazard events. All the changes correspond to a single event of a 500-year return period.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Estimating the risk related to networks: a methodology and an application on a road network

Hackl

Lam

Heitzler

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Networks, such as transportation, water, and power, are critical lifelines to society. Managers plan and execute interventions to guarantee the operational state of their networks under various circumstances, including after the occurrence of (natural) hazard events. Creating an intervention program demands knowing the probable consequences (i.e., risk) of the various hazard events that could occur to be able to mitigate their effects. This paper introduces a methodology to support network managers in the quantification of the risk related to their networks. The method emphasizes the integration of the spatial and 5 temporal attributes of the events that need to be modeled to estimate the risk. This work then demonstrates the usefulness of the methodology through its application to design and implement a risk assessment to estimate the potential impact of flood and mudflow events on a road network located in Switzerland. The example includes the modeling of (i) multiple hazard events, (ii) their physical and functional effects throughout the road network, (iii) the functional interrelationships of the affected objects in the network, (iv) the resulting probable consequences in terms of expected costs of restoration, cost of traffic changes, and 10 duration of network disruption, and (v) the restoration of the network.

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“…The use of such tools will allow managers to choose and implement effective methods of investment risk management, which can significantly reduce the negative impact of risk factors and achieve a significant effect from the investment. Lam (1997), Pringles, et al (2015) highlight the following problematic aspects in the choice of risk management tools: [4,5]:…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Planning, Accounting and Control as Risk Management Tools for Small Business Investment Projects

et al. 2021

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The purpose of this study is to develop scientifically sound proposals and recommendations for the implementation of planning, accounting and control tools in risk management of investment projects of small businesses. The relevance of this study is due to the need to provide small businesses with effective methods of risk management of the investment project, which can significantly reduce the negative impact of risk factors and achieve a significant effect from the investment. To achieve the goal of the study, methodological approaches were used to assess the risk sustainability of the enterprise, based on the assessment of the resource potential of the enterprise. A system of indicators is proposed to assess the quality of enterprise resources. Theoretical and methodological approaches to the formation of an early warning system in risk management have been developed. The proposed concept of indicative management includes tools for indicative control of investment projects in relation to the risk sustainability of the enterprise from the standpoint of its resource provision. Risks in this case become key indicators to which management actions should be directed. The introduction of a risk passport is proposed as a tool for early warning of crisis phenomena in small enterprises. The authors proved that the risk prevention system should be integrated into the overall organizational structure and become part of the enterprise management system. Indicative management is proposed as a tool for implementing functional strategies to prevent or eliminate threats and maximize their strengths and capabilities. Doi: 10.28991/esj-2021-01302 Full Text: PDF

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Modelling the functional capacity losses of networks exposed to hazards

Cited by 10 publications

References 13 publications

Estimating network related risks: A methodology and an application in the transport sector

Estimating network related risks: A methodology and an application in the transport sector

Estimating the risk related to networks: a methodology and an application on a road network

Planning, Accounting and Control as Risk Management Tools for Small Business Investment Projects

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