An individual-based modeling (IBM) approach was developed to describe the behavior of a few Listeria monocytogenes cells contaminating smear soft cheese surface. The IBM approach consisted of assessing the stochastic individual behaviors of cells on cheese surfaces and knowing the characteristics of their surrounding microenvironments. We used a microelectrode for pH measurements and micro-osmolality to assess the water activity of cheese microsamples. These measurements revealed a high variability of microscale pH compared to that of macroscale pH. A model describing the increase in pH from approximately 5.0 to more than 7.0 during ripening was developed. The spatial variability of the cheese surface characterized by an increasing pH with radius and higher pH on crests compared to that of hollows on cheese rind was also modeled. The microscale water activity ranged from approximately 0.96 to 0.98 and was stable during ripening. The spatial variability on cheese surfaces was low compared to between-cheese variability. Models describing the microscale variability of cheese characteristics were combined with the IBM approach to simulate the stochastic growth of L. monocytogenes on cheese, and these simulations were compared to bacterial counts obtained from irradiated cheeses artificially contaminated at different ripening stages. The simulated variability of L. monocytogenes counts with the IBM/microenvironmental approach was consistent with the observed one. Contrasting situations corresponding to no growth or highly contaminated foods could be deduced from these models. Moreover, the IBM approach was more effective than the traditional population/macroenvironmental approach to describe the actual bacterial behavior variability.
Since risk analysis emerged as the internationally recognized framework to improve food control systems, many risk assessments were published that evaluated the probabilities and severities of adverse health effects resulting from the exposure of consumers to pathogenic microorganisms present in foods. This is especially the case for the food-borne pathogen bacterium Listeria monocytogenes. Its ubiquitous nature and its ability to multiply in many foods during chilled storage fostered the development of quantitative microbial risk assessment aimed at ranking foods according to risk or predicting the impact of management options (1-6).The assessment of the microbial behavior of the pathogen is of the highest importance when performing these quantitative assessments, since listeriosis cases are predominantly linked to the consumption of highly contaminated foods (2), and the variability of this behavior is of paramount importance in the context of exposure assessment (7, 8). The major sources of variability affecting microbial responses in foods are the initial contamination level, the variability in processing factors, the variability in food characteristics and in the storage conditions, and the biological variability, i.e., the variability of microbial behavior.For several years, it has...