Modelling the emergence dynamics of the western corn rootworm beetle (Diabrotica virgifera virgifera)

Abstract

The western corn rootworm is an invasive species to Europe and is a major agricultural pest that causes widespread economic and yield losses to maize producers. The Gompertz curve was originally used to model human population mortality. It is a sigmoidal curve where the beginning and end of a period shows the slowest time for growth, and adequately describes observed dynamics of many phenomena. We propose the use of the Gompertz function in a Bayesian Hierarchical framework to model the emergence dynamics of the western corn rootworm beetle. The proposed model includes the use of climatic variables to assess how weather can influence the observed dynamics. We apply the model to Austrian monitoring data collected in 2004–2015.