Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe

Abstract

Vector-borne diseases are among those most sensitive to climate because the ecology of vectors and the development rate of pathogens within them are highly dependent on environmental conditions. Bluetongue (BT), a recently emerged arboviral disease of ruminants in Europe, is often cited as an illustration of climate's impact on disease emergence, although no study has yet tested this association. Here, we develop a framework to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate on BT's emergence in Europe by integrating high-resolution climate observations and model simulations within a mechanistic model of BT transmission risk. We demonstrate that a climate-driven model explains, in both space and time, many aspects of BT's recent emergence and spread, including the 2006 BT outbreak in northwest Europe which occurred in the year of highest projected risk since at least 1960. Furthermore, the model provides mechanistic insight into BT's emergence, suggesting that the drivers of emergence across Europe differ between the South and the North. Driven by simulated future climate from an ensemble of 11 regional climate models, the model projects increase in the future risk of BT emergence across most of Europe with uncertainty in rate but not in trend. The framework described here is adaptable and applicable to other diseases, where the link between climate and disease transmission risk can be quantified, permitting the evaluation of scale and uncertainty in climate change's impact on the future of such diseases.

Project MOSI: rationale and pilot‐study results of an initiative to help protect zoo animals from mosquito‐transmitted pathogens and contribute data on mosquito spatio–temporal distribution change

“…The unintentional assistance provided by human activities combined with the great adaptability of many mosquito species has enabled extensive colonization outside of their natural range areas. A. albopictus exemplifies how extensive such range expansions can be (Benedict et al, 2007;Roiz et al, 2011;Caminade et al, 2012).…”

“…Paull & Johnson (2013) summarize the complex physiological, range-shift, biotic-interaction and evolutionary challenges of predicting and attributing climate-driven changes to disease dynamics. However, a substantial body of publications and health-agency reports highlights the significance of climate change on vector-borne diseases (Kurane, 2010;Eastwood et al, 2011;Guis et al, 2012;Gallana et al, change. In the context of mosquito research, many zoos have the potential to provide valuable mosquito-monitoring and research opportunities This is largely due to the combination of novel species assemblages that zoos and similar facilities maintain, and the diverse range of microhabitats and shelters suitable for mosquito breeding and overwintering (Adler et al, 2011;Nelder, 2007;Tuten, 2011a;Tuten 2011b;Tuten et al, 2012).…”

“…The unintentional assistance provided by human activities combined with the great adaptability of many mosquito species has enabled extensive colonization outside of their natural range areas. A. albopictus exemplifies how extensive such range expansions can be (Benedict et al, 2007;Roiz et al, 2011;Caminade et al, 2012).Anthropogenic climate change (IPCC, 2013) presents a wide range of direct and indirect health impact issues (World Health Organization, 2003, 2009 Patz et al, 2005;Confalonieri et al, 2007; Costello et al, 2009 Costello et al, , 2011. The many indirect health issues include vector-borne disease impacts (Sutherst, 2004;Epstein & Mills, 2005;Kurane, 2010;Moore et al, 2012).…”

“…Paull & Johnson (2013) summarize the complex physiological, range-shift, biotic-interaction and evolutionary challenges of predicting and attributing climate-driven changes to disease dynamics. However, a substantial body of publications and health-agency reports highlights the significance of climate change on vector-borne diseases (Kurane, 2010;Eastwood et al, 2011;Guis et al, 2012;Gallana et al, 2013; World Health Organization, 2013b), including actual and projected spatio-temporal changes to mosquito distribution and associated disease issues (Patz et al, 2005;Confalonieri et al, 2007;Paaijmans et al, 2010;Garamszegi, 2011;Roiz et al, 2011;Hongoh et al, 2012;Loiseau et al, 2012;Altizer et al, 2013;Fischer et al, 2013;Gallana et al, 2013;Hueffer et al, 2013; World Health Organization, 2013c). …”

The impact of temperature changes on vector-borne disease transmission: Culicoides midges and bluetongue virus

“…At constant temperature, R 0 can be determined from the rates of midge life processes at that temperature. This approach has been used to define temperature-dependent R 0 values for BTV in the non-spatial context [34], the spatial context [42] and in order to assess the possible impact of climate change [43]. However, strong daily fluctuations in temperature, as are commonly observed in northern Europe, challenge the validity of this approach for BTV.…”