Modelling the effectiveness of enforcement strategies for avoiding tropical deforestation in Kerinci Seblat National Park, Sumatra

Abstract

As the tropical deforestation crisis continues, innovative schemes are being developed to reduce this loss, such as the sale of forest carbon credit. Nevertheless, to address this ongoing and pervasive loss, governments, protected area managers and donors need to know where to invest their limited conservation resources for greatest success. At the moment this prioritisation is rarely done objectively, so there is a need for new methods that predict the efficacy of different approaches. In this study, we focus on forest loss in and around one of Indonesia's largest protected areas, Kerinci Seblat National Park (KSNP), and evaluate the effectiveness of several forest protection scenarios. First, forest loss patterns from 1985 to 2002 were mapped for the southern end of the KS region and the correlates of deforestation were determined using a logistic regression analysis. This highlighted the critical threat posed to the forest by its proximity to the forest edge and to settlements, as well as its elevation and slope. This regression model was then used to map the predicted risk of remaining forest being cleared and was combined with field data to model the results of three law enforcement scenarios up to the year 2020. This found that a strategy that concentrated patrol effort at the four main access points was found to avoid the most deforestation. These results show that modelling the impact of different protection 123Biodivers Conserv (2010) 19:973-984 DOI 10.1007 strategies can provide important insights and could be used more widely in deforestation mitigation and designing conservation landscapes.

Deforestation modelling using logistic regression and GIS

“…The spatial patterns of deforestation across this area highlighted the critical role of accessibility, with the importance of distance to roads and residential areas. These results reflect the findings of other deforestation assessments (Ludek et al 1990;Linkie et al 2004Linkie et al , 2010Amini et al 2009;Bagheri, Shataee 2010). It was found that 83% of deforestation occurred within a 2-km distance from roads.…”

“…The logistic regression goodness of fit is low, suggesting that missing variables such as livestock's role, might further explain differences between low and high deforestation. In spite of this, the modelling approach developed by this study would benefit conservation planning (Wilson et al 2005;Smith et al 2008;Linkie et al 2010).…”

Trio under threat: can we secure the future of rhinos, elephants and tigers in Malaysia?

“…Linkie et al (2010) showed that focused long-term patrols can be effective in deterring illegal activities in and around Sumatran protected areas. In Peninsular Malaysia, enforcement efforts by DWNP thus far have been commendable (Table 3) (Table 3).…”

The psychology of community-based conservation programs: A case study of the Sumatran orangutan

“…Deforestation rates are higher in areas inhabited by people, highlighting the need for alternate livelihoods, active forest protection and community involvement in conservation (Galvin et al 2006;Linkie et al 2010). Furthermore, other anthropogenic threats, including hunting, illegal wildlife trade and human-wildlife conflict demonstrate that the inclusion of communities in conservation strategies is integral to success.…”