Modelling the dispersion of particle numbers in five European  cities

Kukkonen, Jaakko; Karl, Matthias; Keuken, Menno; Gon, Hugo Denier van der; Denby, Bruce; Singh, Vikas; Douros, John; Manders, Astrid; Samaras, Zissis; Moussiopoulos, Ν.; Sander, Johannes; Aarnio, Mia; Karppinen, Ari; Kangas, Leena; Lützenkirchen, Susanne; Petäj̈ä, Tuukka; Vouitsis, Ilias; Sokhi, Ranjeet S.

doi:10.5194/gmd-9-451-2016

Cited by 53 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 89 publications

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“…Alternatives for a high resolution of LOTOS-EUROS itself are the implementation of a plume in grid approach (Seigneur et al, 1983;Karamchandani et al, 2011;Rissman et al, 2013) and the (offline) coupling with plume or street models (Brandt et al, 2001;Kukkonen et al, 2016). An intermediate solution for the calculation of annual-average maps has been demonstrated for the Netherlands by combining the LOTOS-EUROS results with those of the Dutch Operational Prioritary Substances (OPS) model (Van Jaarsveld, 2004;Sauter et al, 2015), which is based on Gaussian dispersion.…”

Section: Discussion and Outlookmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The model performance was best for areas that are dominated by anthropogenic sources. For model validation, a description of emission input and application as background model for city-scale models we refer to Kukkonen et al (2016). The modelled size distribution did not match the observations very well, with an overestimation of small-particle concentrations and an underestimation of large particles.…”

Section: Aerosol Modelling Improvementmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Curriculum vitae of the LOTOS–EUROS (v2.0) chemistry transport model

et al. 2017

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Abstract. The development and application of chemistry transport models has a long tradition. Within the Netherlands the LOTOS-EUROS model has been developed by a consortium of institutes, after combining its independently developed predecessors in 2005. Recently, version 2.0 of the model was released as an open-source version. This paper presents the curriculum vitae of the model system, describing the model's history, model philosophy, basic features and a validation with EMEP stations for the new benchmark year 2012, and presents cases with the model's most recent and key developments. By setting the model developments in context and providing an outlook for directions for further development, the paper goes beyond the common model description.With an origin in ozone and sulfur modelling for the models LOTOS and EUROS, the application areas were gradually extended with persistent organic pollutants, reactive nitrogen, and primary and secondary particulate matter. After the combination of the models to LOTOS-EUROS in 2005, the model was further developed to include new source parametrizations (e.g. road resuspension, desert dust, wildfires), applied for operational smog forecasts in the Netherlands and Europe, and has been used for emission scenarios, source apportionment, and long-term hindcast and climate change scenarios. LOTOS-EUROS has been a front-runner in data assimilation of ground-based and satellite observations and has participated in many model intercomparison studies. The model is no longer confined to applications over Europe but is also applied to other regions of the world, e.g. China. The increasing interaction with emission experts has also contributed to the improvement of the model's performance. The philosophy for model development has always been to use knowledge that is state of the art and proven, to keep a good balance in the level of detail of process description and accuracy of input and output, and to keep a good record on the effect of model changes using benchmarking and validation. The performance of v2.0 with respect to EMEP observations is good, with spatial correlations around 0.8 or higher for concentrations and wet deposition. Temporal correlations are around 0.5 or higher. Recent innovative applications include source apportionment and data assimilation, particle number modelling, and energy transition scenarios including corresponding land use changes as well as Saharan dust forecasting. Future developments would enable more flexibility with respect to model horizontal and vertical resolution and further detailing of model input data.Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.

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Section: Discussion and Outlookmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Aerosol Modelling Improvementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Curriculum vitae of the LOTOS–EUROS (v2.0) chemistry transport model

et al. 2017

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“…On the other hand, the aerosol number emissions and their size distributions with information on different emission abatement techniques have been studied lately resulting in a size-resolved European particle number emission inventory (Denier van der Gon et al, 2009Gon et al, , 2010Gon et al, , 2013Gon et al, , 2014Kulmala et al, 2011) which has been tested in several UFP modelling exercises (e.g. Fountoukis et al, 2012;Kukkonen et al, 2016). Emission inventories are not directly applicable for estimating the future trends in emissions as they are based on available statistics, which generally lag several years behind the present day.…”

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confidence: 99%

Continental anthropogenic primary particle number emissions

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Atmospheric aerosol particle number concentrations impact our climate and health in ways different from those of aerosol mass concentrations. However, the global, current and future anthropogenic particle number emissions and their size distributions are so far poorly known. In this article, we present the implementation of particle number emission factors and the related size distributions in the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) model. This implementation allows for global estimates of particle number emissions under different future scenarios, consistent with emissions of other pollutants and greenhouse gases. In addition to determining the general particulate number emissions, we also describe a method to estimate the number size distributions of the emitted black carbon particles. The first results show that the sources dominating the particle number emissions are different to those dominating the mass emissions. The major global number source is road traffic, followed by residential combustion of biofuels and coal (especially in China, India and Africa), coke production (Russia and China), and industrial combustion and processes. The size distributions of emitted particles differ across the world, depending on the main sources: in regions dominated by traffic and industry, the number size distribution of emissions peaks in diameters range from 20 to 50 nm, whereas in regions with intensive biofuel combustion and/or agricultural waste burning, the emissions of particles with diameters around 100 nm are dominant. In the baseline (current legislation) scenario, the particle number emissions in Europe, Northern and Southern Americas, Australia, and China decrease until 2030, whereas especially for India, a strong increase is estimated. The results of this study provide input for modelling of the future changes in aerosol-cloud interactions as well as particle number related adverse health effects, e.g. in response to tightening emission regulations. However, there are significant uncertainties in these current emission estimates and the key actions for decreasing the uncertainties are pointed out.

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“…However, the few epidemiological studies that have been carried out to investigate the effect of UFP on mortality revealed inconsistent results, one reason being that the current exposure assessment techniques are not well suited to describe the long-term exposure to UFPs [19]. Modeling of regional and urban air quality showed that the influence of shipping and harbors was relevant on particle number concentrations for Helsinki, Oslo, Rotterdam, and Athens [20]. Ship engine exhaust aerosol is composed of ultrafine combustion particles consisting of soot and volatile material [21,22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling of the Concentrations of Ultrafine Particles in the Plumes of Ships in the Vicinity of Major Harbors

Karl

Pirjola

Karppinen

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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Marine traffic in harbors can be responsible for significant atmospheric concentrations of ultrafine particles (UFPs), which have widely recognized negative effects on human health. It is therefore essential to model and measure the time evolution of the number size distributions and chemical composition of UFPs in ship exhaust to assess the resulting exposure in the vicinity of shipping routes. In this study, a sequential modelling chain was developed and applied, in combination with the data measured and collected in major harbor areas in the cities of Helsinki and Turku in Finland, during winter and summer in 2010–2011. The models described ship emissions, atmospheric dispersion, and aerosol dynamics, complemented with a time–microenvironment–activity model to estimate the short-term UFP exposure. We estimated the dilution ratio during the initial fast expansion of the exhaust plume to be approximately equal to eight. This dispersion regime resulted in a fully formed nucleation mode (denoted as Nuc2). Different selected modelling assumptions about the chemical composition of Nuc2 did not have an effect on the formation of nucleation mode particles. Aerosol model simulations of the dispersing ship plume also revealed a partially formed nucleation mode (Nuc1; peaking at 1.5 nm), consisting of freshly nucleated sulfate particles and condensed organics that were produced within the first few seconds. However, subsequent growth of the new particles was limited, due to efficient scavenging by the larger particles originating from the ship exhaust. The transport of UFPs downwind of the ship track increased the hourly mean UFP concentrations in the neighboring residential areas by a factor of two or more up to a distance of 3600 m, compared with the corresponding UFP concentrations in the urban background. The substantially increased UFP concentrations due to ship traffic significantly affected the daily mean exposures in residential areas located in the vicinity of the harbors.

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Modelling the dispersion of particle numbers in five European cities

Cited by 53 publications

References 89 publications

Curriculum vitae of the LOTOS–EUROS (v2.0) chemistry transport model

Curriculum vitae of the LOTOS–EUROS (v2.0) chemistry transport model

Continental anthropogenic primary particle number emissions

Modeling of the Concentrations of Ultrafine Particles in the Plumes of Ships in the Vicinity of Major Harbors

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