Modelling the diffusion of manual irrigation pumps in lower income countries with the Bass model

This article aims to establish a methodology to estimate the parameters of the Bass model of diffusion of innovations at the take-off stage of the innovation in emerging markets and thus draw timely diffusion forecasts. This article analyses four cases of diffusion of innovations in emerging markets. Besides gradient-based methods for model estimation such as ordinary least squares (OLS) and non-linear least squares (NLS), this article uses global optimization techniques such as genetic algorithms (GA) and simulated annealing (SA) with diffusion data till the take-off stage. This study attempts to respond to the problems of scant data by interpolation until the take-off stage. After that, a comprehensive comparison of different methods is made using the standard error diagnostic measures. The results indicate that a combination of NLS, GA and SA with interpolated data reduces error margins to a commonly acceptable level even with scant and noisy data, thus providing managers a methodology to make timely forecasts of diffusion of innovations in emerging markets.

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Timely Forecasts of Diffusion of Innovations: The Bass Model in Emerging Markets

Mitra

Priya

Venkatesh

et al. 2020

Global Business Review

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Diffusion of Banking Products in Financial Inclusion Linked Savings Accounts: A Case Study Based on Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana in India

Singh

Prasad

2021

Global Business Review

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The slow rate of adoption of savings and transaction accounts opened under financial inclusion programmes is a challenge for policymakers across the globe. We use the experience of a large-scale financial inclusion programme in India—Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY)—to model the adoption of simple banking products, namely deposit, withdrawal, fund transfer and ATM usage. Based on account-level transaction data, we create a dataset to capture the adoption of each product over time. We use this data to estimate three growth models: Bass, Gompertz and logistic. The Bass model which is based on diffusion of innovations theory is found to be the best fit across products. The role of social influence in the diffusion of the four products studied is found to be much lower when compared to other products in subsistence marketplaces. Social network effect is comparatively stronger in the adoption of fund transfer and ATM. We discuss the mechanisms underlying this phenomenon and contend that information transfer by word of mouth and network effects are the most probable reasons for the observed adoption behaviour.

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Modelling the diffusion of manual irrigation pumps in lower income countries with the Bass model

Cited by 2 publications

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Timely Forecasts of Diffusion of Innovations: The Bass Model in Emerging Markets

Timely Forecasts of Diffusion of Innovations: The Bass Model in Emerging Markets

Diffusion of Banking Products in Financial Inclusion Linked Savings Accounts: A Case Study Based on Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana in India

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