Modelling the consequences of duck migration patterns on the genetic diversity of aquatic organisms: a first step towards a predictive tool for wetland management

Summary1. Informative Bayesian priors can improve the precision of estimates in ecological studies or estimate parameters for which little or no information is available. While Bayesian analyses are becoming more popular in ecology, the use of strongly informative priors remains rare, perhaps because examples of informative priors are not readily available in the published literature. 2. Dispersal distance is an important ecological parameter, but is difficult to measure and estimates are scarce. General models that provide informative prior estimates of dispersal distances will therefore be valuable. 3. Using a world-wide data set on birds, we develop a predictive model of median natal dispersal distance that includes body mass, wingspan, sex and feeding guild. This model predicts median dispersal distance well when using the fitted data and an independent test data set, explaining up to 53% of the variation. 4. Using this model, we predict a priori estimates of median dispersal distance for 57 woodlanddependent bird species in northern Victoria, Australia. These estimates are then used to investigate the relationship between dispersal ability and vulnerability to landscape-scale changes in habitat cover and fragmentation. 5. We find evidence that woodland bird species with poor predicted dispersal ability are more vulnerable to habitat fragmentation than those species with longer predicted dispersal distances, thus improving the understanding of this important phenomenon. 6. The value of constructing informative priors from existing information is also demonstrated. When used as informative priors for four example species, predicted dispersal distances reduced the 95% credible intervals of posterior estimates of dispersal distance by 8-19%. Further, should we have wished to collect information on avian dispersal distances and relate it to species' responses to habitat loss and fragmentation, data from 221 individuals across 57 species would have been required to obtain estimates with the same precision as those provided by the general model.

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“…In addition to body mass, it is likely that dispersal ability will be influenced by wingspan or length (Lurz et al. 2002; Dawideit et al.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition to body mass, it is likely that dispersal ability will be influenced by wingspan or length (Lurz et al 2002;Dawideit et al 2009). It is assumed that, on average, birds with a larger wingspan will be able to travel further.…”

Section: E S T I M a T I N G D I S P E R S A L D I S T A N C Ementioning

confidence: 99%

A predictive model of avian natal dispersal distance provides prior information for investigating response to landscape change

Garrard

McCarthy

Vesk

et al. 2011

Journal of Animal Ecology

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“…Their ecological function transcends their boundaries and affects an important global network of wetland systems, which should be understood and managed jointly (López et al 2004). Thus, these manmade wetlands are also of great interest due to the functional role they play in ecological connectivity (Masero et al 1999;Amezaga et al 2002;Lurz et al 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Selection of ecological indicators for the conservation, management and monitoring of Mediterranean coastal salinas

López

Aguilera

Schmitz

et al. 2009

Environ Monit Assess

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Salinas systems are artificial wetlands which are interesting from the viewpoint of nature conservation. They play an important role both as habitats for migratory waterbird species and as nodes of biotic connectivity networks. In the Mediterranean basin, where the coastal salinas are highly significant as alternative and complementary habitats for waterbirds, a process of abandonment occurs, and many seminatural systems of this kind are disappearing. This abandonment is having serious consequences for migratory bird populations and for the ecological role these play. In the present paper, this group of waterbird species has been used to evaluate these wetlands for conservation purposes. We have developed a methodological approach for the selection of ecological indicators for the conservation and management of these Mediterranean habitats and waterbird assemblages, the main consumers therein. The stepwise procedure developed constitutes a practical tool for this task. Application thereof enabled us to differentiate the habitats available for the waterbirds and to identify the biotic and abiotic indicators for the maintenance and management of the salina ecosystems. These variables can then be incorporated into monitoring programs.

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“…1). Others simulated the effect of the bird migratory strategy on the potential gene spread of aquatic organisms, though the lack of data on propagule gut retention time limited the estimation of propagule dispersal distances and consequent gene flow derived from this model (Lurz et al 2002).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Migratory strategies of waterbirds shape the continental‐scale dispersal of aquatic organisms

et al. 2012

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Long distance dispersal (LDD) of propagules is an important determinant of population dynamics, community structuring and biodiversity distribution at landscape, and sometimes continental, scale. Although migratory animals are potential LDD vectors, migratory movement data have never been integrated in estimates of propagule dispersal distances and LDD probability. Here we integrated migratory movement data of two waterbird species (mallard and teal) over two continents (Europe and North America) and gut retention time of different propagules to build a simple mechanistic model of passive dispersal of aquatic plants and zooplankton. Distance and frequency of migratory movements differed both between waterbird species and continents, which in turn resulted in changes in the shapes of propagule dispersal curves. Dispersal distances and the frequency of LDD events (generated by migratory movements) were mainly determined by the disperser species and, to a lesser extent, by the continent. The gut retention time of propagules also exerted a significant effect, which was mediated by the propagule characteristics (e.g. seeds were dispersed farther than Artemia cysts). All estimated dispersal curves were skewed towards local‐scale dispersal and, although dispersal distances were lower than previous estimates based only on the vector flight speed, had fat tails produced by LDD events that ranged from 230 to 1209 km. Our results suggest that propagule dispersal curves are determined by the migratory strategy of the disperser species, the region (or flyway) through which the disperser population moves, and the propagule characteristics. Waterbirds in particular may frequently link wetlands separated by hundreds of kilometres, contributing to the maintenance of biodiversity and, given the large geographic scale of the dispersal events, to the readjustment of species distributions in the face of climate change.

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Modelling the consequences of duck migration patterns on the genetic diversity of aquatic organisms: a first step towards a predictive tool for wetland management

Cited by 7 publications

References 22 publications

A predictive model of avian natal dispersal distance provides prior information for investigating response to landscape change

A predictive model of avian natal dispersal distance provides prior information for investigating response to landscape change

Selection of ecological indicators for the conservation, management and monitoring of Mediterranean coastal salinas

Migratory strategies of waterbirds shape the continental‐scale dispersal of aquatic organisms

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