Modelling sustainable urban travel in a whole systems energy model

Pye, Steve; Daly, Hannah

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.08.127

Cited by 45 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 26 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Under Article 4, more developed countries are expected to take a leading role. Examples of deep decarbonisation analysis can be found for multiple countries, including China [2,3] , the United States [4], Germany [5], Denmark [6], Ireland [7] , Switzerland [8], Portugal [9] , and the United Kingdom [10,11]. The United Kingdom (UK) is one example of an advanced economy which is already committed to ambitious long-term decarbonisation targets.…”

Section: Introduction: Investment Needs and The Key Uncertainties Facmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investment appraisal of cost-optimal and near-optimal pathways for the UK electricity sector transition to 2050

Trutnevyte

2017

Applied Energy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Deep decarbonisation of the electricity sector is central to achieving the United Kingdom's (UK) climate policy targets for 2050 and meeting its international commitments under the Paris Agreement. While the overall strategy for decarbonising the energy system has been well established in previous studies, there remain deep uncertainties around the total investment cost requirements for the power system. The future of the power system is of critical importance because low carbon electricity may create significant opportunities for emissions reduction in buildings and transport. A key policy application of quantitative analysis using models is to explore how much investment needs to be mobilised for the energy transition. However, past estimates of energy transition costs for the UK power sector have focused only on 2030 rather than 2050 and consider a relatively narrow range of uncertainties. This paper addresses this important research gap. The UK government's main whole system energy economy model is linked to a power system model that employs an advanced approach to uncertainty analysis, combining Monte Carlo simulation with Modelling-to-Generate Alternatives (MGA), producing 800 different scenario pathways. These pathways simultaneously consider uncertainties in policy, technology and costs. The results show that with No Climate Policy, installed generation capacities in 2050 are found in the range 60-75GW, while under an 80% Reduction in GHG Emissions, between 100GW and 130GW of plant are required. Meeting climate targets for 2050 is also found to increase the investment requirements for new electricity generation. The interquartile range for cumulative investments in new generation under the No Climate Policy scenario ranges from £60bn to £75bn, while under an 80% Reduction in GHG Emissions, investment requirements approximately double to £110bn -£140bn. The exercise demonstrates the importance of uncertainty analysis to policy evaluation, yielding insights for future research practice both in the UK and internationally.

show abstract

Section: Introduction: Investment Needs and The Key Uncertainties Facmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investment appraisal of cost-optimal and near-optimal pathways for the UK electricity sector transition to 2050

Trutnevyte

2017

Applied Energy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Concerning the second approach, there are several methods to include behavior in E4 models. For instance, [11,45,46] emulate modal shift by integrating the concept of travel time budget and transport infrastructure, [47,48] introduce endogenous modal choice through modelling modal level of service and consumers' decisions, while [49] adopts substitution elasticities to enable modal shift. These approaches include different levels of transport behavior in E4 models and thus offer different capabilities, and require different data sources.…”

Section: Transport Behaviormentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy Scenario Analysis for the Nordic Transport Sector: A Critical Review

et al. 2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Experiencing the highest growth in emissions since 1990 and relying mainly on oil, transport is considered the most complicated sector to decarbonize. Lately, the Nordic countries have shown remarkable success in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, especially in the power and heat sector. However, when it comes to transportation, the greatest source of Nordic GHG emissions, stronger measures are needed. Relying on a rich and diversified portfolio of renewable sources and expertise, the Nordic countries could benefit from a common mitigation strategy by encompassing a larger variety of solutions and potential synergies. This article reviews studies addressing integrated energy and transport scenario analysis for the Nordic region as a whole. The studies targeted are those applying energy system models, given their extensive adoption in supporting scenario analysis. Most notable of these studies is the “Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives 2016” to which a special focus is dedicated. The article reviews the methodological choices and the research content of the selected literature. Challenges/limitations are identified in light of recent transport research, and categorized as: “transport behavior”, “breakthrough technologies”, “domestic energy resources” and “geographical aggregation and system boundaries”. Lastly, a list of suggestions to tackle the identified gaps is provided based on the existing literature.

show abstract

“…Much effort for low carbon transitions of the transport sector have, therefore, devoted to SMM policies to achieve the GHG reduction goals (Mandell, 2009;Moriarty and Honnery, 2008). While the large-scale uptake of SMM policies, especially low carbon technologies is crucial; many studies, however, come to a conclusion that they alone do not lead reduced GHG emissions targets (Bristow et al, 2008;Pye and Daly, 2015).…”

Section: Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact assessment of supply-side and demand-side policies on energy consumption and CO2 emissions from urban passenger transportation: The case of Istanbul

Batur

Bayram

Кочкодан

2019

Journal of Cleaner Production

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The transportation sector accounts for about a quarter of global energy consumption and energy-related carbon emissions. To design and realize sustainable urban transportation, it is vital to understand and analyze interactions between a set of dynamic factors that shape transportation patterns, behaviors, and impacts. To this end, this study aims to develop a systems dynamics (SD) model for Istanbul, Turkey to simulate its urban motorized passenger transport system for analyzing numerous policies under different scenarios and assessing their potential effects in reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the upcoming years. The constructed SD model includes four subsystems: population, household disposable income, transport, and energy and CO2 emissions. Based on historical data (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) and model validation processes, the energy consumption and the associated CO2 emissions from motorized passenger transport are forecasted for the following scenarios. The first one is business as usual scenario (BAU) which is designed to show how energy use and the associated CO2 emissions would evolve over time with the current development plans. The second and third scenarios constitute supply management measures (SMM) which consider different levels of improvements in the fuel economy of the vehicle fleet and reduced carbon emission intensity in electricity generation through increased share of renewable energy use. The fourth and fifth scenarios consider travel demand management (TDM) policies that include different levels of transport cost increase, and trip length reduction. Finally, the last two scenarios include integrated scenarios that are composed of the SMM and TDM options. In detail, compared to the BAU scenario, integrated scenario considers (1) a 10% improvement in the fuel economy of the vehicles, (2) a 10% reduction in the emission intensity of electricity generation, (3) a 30% increase in the transportation cost, and (4) a 15% reduction in the trip lengths. Under the BAU scenario, the SD model shows that energy consumption per capita from passenger trips will increase from 183 liters of oil equivalent in 2016 to 315 liters of oil equivalent in 2025 while the associated CO2 emissions per capita will increase from 460 kg in 2016 to 807 kg in 2025. To combat this dramatic growth, the findings indicate that the ambitious integrated scenario achieves the lowest energy consumption and CO2 emissions by offering a 33.5% expected reduction in total energy consumption and a 32.8% expected reduction in total CO2 emissions. Highlights • Development of system dynamics model for Istanbul passenger transport network• Several supply-side, demand-side, and integrated policy scenarios are generated using cost, emission, and trip-related parameters• Policies are evaluated based on transport energy consumption and CO2 emissions for Istanbul until 2025.• Integrated policies perform the best and lead to nearly one-third of energy and carbon...

show abstract

Modelling sustainable urban travel in a whole systems energy model

Cited by 45 publications

References 26 publications

Investment appraisal of cost-optimal and near-optimal pathways for the UK electricity sector transition to 2050

Investment appraisal of cost-optimal and near-optimal pathways for the UK electricity sector transition to 2050

Energy Scenario Analysis for the Nordic Transport Sector: A Critical Review

Impact assessment of supply-side and demand-side policies on energy consumption and CO2 emissions from urban passenger transportation: The case of Istanbul

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About