Modelling species responses to extreme weather provides new insights into constraints on range and likely climate change impacts for Australian mammals

Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra; Briscoe, Natalie J.; Wintle, Brendan A.

doi:10.1111/ecog.02850

Cited by 49 publications

(53 citation statements)

References 84 publications

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“…At a spatial scale, species range is fixed at upper and lower elevation limits by a complex interplay of abiotic and biotic factors (Ettinger & Hillerislambers, 2017;Jankowski, Robinson, & Levey, 2010). A common approach to study impacts of climate change uses climate as a sole determinant (Morán-Ordóñez, Briscoe, & Wintle, 2018) which probably is overly simplified prediction (Ettinger & Hillerislambers, 2017). Deconstructing the dynamics of species distribution patterns is, therefore, particularly important in regions with rapidly changing environment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of geography, environment, and genetic divergence on the distribution of pikas in the Himalaya

Dahal

Kumar

Noon

et al. 2020

Ecology and Evolution

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Pikas (Ochotona Link, 1795) are high‐altitude specialist species making them a useful bioindicator species to warming in high‐altitude ecosystem. The Himalayan Mountains are an important part of their range, supporting approximately 23%–25% of total pika species worldwide, yet we lack basic information on the distribution patterns. We combine field‐based surveys with genetics‐based identification and phylogeny to identify differences in species‐environment relationships. Further, we suggest putative evolutionary causes for the observed niche patterns. Location Himalayan high‐altitude region. Methods We sampled 11 altitudinal transects (ranging from ~2,000 to 5,000 m) in the Himalaya to establish occurrence records. We collected 223 species records using genetic analyses to confirm species' identity (based on some invasive and mostly noninvasive biological samples). Niche and geographic overlap were estimated using kernel density estimates. Results Most pikas in the Himalaya span wide elevation ranges and exhibit extensive spatial overlap with other species. However, even in areas of high species diversity, we found species to have a distinct environmental niche. Despite apparent overlapping distributions at broad spatial scales, in our field surveys, we encountered few cases of co‐occurrence of species in the sampled transects. Deeply diverged sister‐species pair had the least environmental niche overlap despite having the highest geographic range overlap. In contrast, sister‐species pair with shallow genetic divergence had a higher environmental niche overlap but was geographically isolated. We hypothesize that the extent of environmental niche divergence in pikas is a function of divergence time within the species complex. We assessed vulnerability of species to future climate change using environmental niche and geographic breadth sizes as a proxies. Our findings suggest that O. sikimaria may be the most vulnerable species. Ochotona roylii appears to have the most unique environmental niche space, with least niche overlap with other pika species from the study area.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of geography, environment, and genetic divergence on the distribution of pikas in the Himalaya

Dahal

Kumar

Noon

et al. 2020

Ecology and Evolution

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“…Climate is a key large-scale factor shaping species occurrence (Elton, 1927;Krebs, 1978;Parmesan, 1996). Short-term weather is another factor that can affect species occurrence, with numerous studies documenting the effects of weather variables, including extremes of temperature and rainfall on various groups of biota (Bateman, VanDerWal, & Johnson, 2012;Gibbs, Chambers, & Bennett, 2011;Moran-Ordonez, Briscoe, & Wintle, 2018;Stenseth et al, 2002). Combined, climate and weather in part shape vegetation communities, which provide habitat for many vertebrate species (Levin, 2009;Morrison, Marcot, & Mannan, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Weather effects on birds of different size are mediated by long‐term climate and vegetation type in endangered temperate woodlands

Lindenmayer

Lane

Crane

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

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Species occurrence is influenced by a range of factors including habitat attributes, climate, weather, and human landscape modification. These drivers are likely to interact, but their effects are frequently quantified independently. Here, we report the results of a 13‐year study of temperate woodland birds in south‐eastern Australia to quantify how different‐sized birds respond to the interacting effects of: (a) short‐term weather (rainfall and temperature in the 12 months preceding our surveys), (b) long‐term climate (average rainfall and maximum and minimum temperatures over the period 1970–2014), and (c) broad structural forms of vegetation (old‐growth woodland, regrowth woodland, and restoration plantings). We uncovered significant interactions between bird body size, vegetation type, climate, and weather. High short‐term rainfall was associated with decreased occurrence of large birds in old‐growth and regrowth woodland, but not in restoration plantings. Conversely, small bird occurrence peaked in wet years, but this effect was most pronounced in locations with a history of high rainfall, and was actually reversed (peak occurrence in dry years) in restoration plantings in dry climates. The occurrence of small birds was depressed—and large birds elevated—in hot years, except in restoration plantings which supported few large birds under these circumstances. Our investigation suggests that different mechanisms may underpin contrasting responses of small and large birds to the interacting effects of climate, weather, and vegetation type. A diversity of vegetation cover is needed across a landscape to promote the occurrence of different‐sized bird species in agriculture‐dominated landscapes, particularly under variable weather conditions. Climate change is predicted to lead to widespread drying of our study region, and restoration plantings—especially currently climatically wet areas—may become critically important for conserving bird species, particularly small‐bodied taxa.

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“…A recent assessment of warming tolerances estimated a 3-19°C buffer for temperate freshwater fishes (Comte and Olden 2017b). For example, including extreme temperature and drought events as predictors in environmental niche models improved predictive performance of those models developed for mammals (Morán-Ordóñez et al 2018) and birds (Bateman et al 2016). Incorporating such extreme weather events into future distributional projections of individual species is essential for vulnerability assessments of faunas (Jentsch and Kreyling 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme heat events and the vulnerability of endemic montane fishes to climate change

Troia

Giam

2019

Ecography

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Identifying how close species live to their physiological thermal maxima is essential to understand historical warm-edge elevational limits of montane faunas and forecast upslope shifts caused by future climate change. We used laboratory experiments to quantify the thermal tolerance and acclimation potential of four fishes (Notropis leuciodus, N. rubricroceus, Etheostoma rufilineatum, E. chlorobranchium) that are endemic to the southern Appalachian Mountains (USA), exhibit different historical elevational limits, and represent the two most species-rich families in the region. All-subsets selection of linear regression models using AIC c indicated that species, acclimation temperature, collection location and month, and the interaction between species and acclimation temperature were important predictors of thermal maxima (T max ), which ranged from 28.5 to 37.2°C. Next, we implemented water temperature models and stochastic weather generation to characterize the magnitude and frequency of extreme heat events (T extreme ) under historical and future climate scenarios across 25 379 stream reaches in the upper Tennessee River system. Lastly, we used environmental niche models to compare warming tolerances (acclimation-corrected T max minus T extreme ) between historically occupied versus unoccupied reaches. Historical warming tolerances, ranging from +2.2 to +10.9°C, increased from low to high elevation and were positive for all species, suggesting that T max does not drive warm-edge (low elevation) range limits. Future warming tolerances were lower (−1.2 to +9.3°C) but remained positive for all species under the direst warming scenario except for a small proportion of reaches historically occupied by E. rufilineatum, indicating that T max and acclimation potentials of southern Appalachian minnows and darters are adequate to survive future heat waves. We caution concluding that these species are invulnerable to 21st century warming because sublethal thermal physiology remains poorly understood. Integrating physiological sensitivity and warming exposure demonstrates a general and fine-grained approach to assess climate change vulnerability for freshwater organisms across physiographically diverse riverscapes.

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Modelling species responses to extreme weather provides new insights into constraints on range and likely climate change impacts for Australian mammals

Cited by 49 publications

References 84 publications

The role of geography, environment, and genetic divergence on the distribution of pikas in the Himalaya

The role of geography, environment, and genetic divergence on the distribution of pikas in the Himalaya

Weather effects on birds of different size are mediated by long‐term climate and vegetation type in endangered temperate woodlands

Extreme heat events and the vulnerability of endemic montane fishes to climate change

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