Modelling societal transitions with agent transformation

Schilperoord, Michel; Rotmans, Jan; Bergman, Noam

doi:10.1007/s10588-008-9036-0

Cited by 21 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 18 publications

(17 reference statements)

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“…The first is the transition model of [25][26][27][28] developed in the EU MATISSE project. In this agent-based model, societal change is perceived as an ongoing competition between a currently established regime, and emerging and competing niches, in response to landscape changes.…”

Section: Modeling Transition Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Accelerating Transition Dynamics in City Regions: A Qualitative Modeling Perspective

Valkering

Yücel

Gebetsroither-Geringer

et al. 2017

Sustainability

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Abstract:In this article, we take stock of the findings from conceptual and empirical work on the role of transition initiatives for accelerating transitions as input for modeling acceleration dynamics. We applied the qualitative modeling approach of causal loop diagrams to capture the dynamics of a single transition initiative evolving within its regional context. In doing so, we aim to address two key challenges in transition modeling, namely conceptualization, and the framing of empirical insights obtained for various case study regions in a consistent modeling framework. Our results show that through this systematic approach one can translate conceptual and qualitative empirical work into a transition model design. Moreover, the causal loop diagrams can be used as discussion tools to support dialogue among researchers and stakeholders, and may support a comparison of transition dynamics across case-study regions. We reflect on main limitations related to empirical model validation (lack of data) and to model structure (high level of aggregation), and describe next steps for moving from a qualitative single transition initiative to a quantitative multiple transition initiatives model.

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Section: Modeling Transition Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Accelerating Transition Dynamics in City Regions: A Qualitative Modeling Perspective

Valkering

Yücel

Gebetsroither-Geringer

et al. 2017

Sustainability

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“…Causal mechanisms of tipping include economies of scale, learning by doing, and network externalities (Arthur ; Pierson ). If some practice, such as technology, manages to attain a critical mass of users through these mechanisms, the incentive to adopt it grows, and a transition to a new equilibrium occurs (Atkeson and Kehoe ; Schilperoord, Rotmans, and Bergman ; Schmidt and Marschinski ). A sustainable energy transition requires policies that allow the society to reach a tipping point.…”

Section: Sustainable Energy Transitionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Political Competition, Path Dependence, and the Strategy of Sustainable Energy Transitions

Aklin

Urpelainen

2013

American J Political Sci

209

100

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Previous research emphasizes the importance of path dependence for sustainable energy transitions, but their strategic nature is frequently overlooked. We examine formally how exogenous shocks, such as changes in international energy prices, interact with positive reinforcement factors, such as the growing strength of the renewables advocacy coalition. We find that political competition modifies the effect of path dependence on policy and outcomes. Specifically, while "green" governments can use positive reinforcement mechanisms to lock in policy commitments (by creating green constituencies), "brown" governments strategically underprovide public support for renewable energy (to avoid creating green constituencies). The effect of positive reinforcement also decreases with international energy prices. Our empirical analysis shows that (1) political competition conditions the policy response to exogenous shocks and market failures, while (2) governments strategically exploit path dependence for political gain.

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“…Within the scope of societal transitions, examples of studies that replicate past evolutions in order to analyse the underlying dynamics are scarce. A principle application to reconcile historical data within a transition analysis has been presented by Schilperoord et al (2008). More detailed models have been applied to look at historical shifts in naval transportation and in the electricity sector (Yücel, 2010).…”

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confidence: 99%

An agent-based model of farmer behaviour to explain the limited adaptability of Flemish agriculture

Maes

Passel

2017

Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions

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Transition projects have been implemented for Flemish agriculture since 2003, but these did not enable a transformation of the agricultural sector. This paper looks at pre-transition scenarios that have been collectively designed by stakeholders of the agricultural sector in 2002. These foresaw decreases in the regional animal stocks in Flanders. However, the real evolution of the sector did not reveal such a decrease. It is assumed that the individual adaptive behaviour of farmers can explain the unexpected stability of the Flemish agricultural sector. A detailed agent-based model has been built to replicate the past evolution, accounting for structural diversity of farmers, heterogeneity in behaviour, and natural resource constraints. The results indicate that different forms of rigidity in the individual behaviour of farmers slow down the adaptation of the agricultural sector. Future transition scenarios should account for these elements in order not to overestimate the speed of change in the sector.

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Modelling societal transitions with agent transformation

Cited by 21 publications

References 18 publications

Accelerating Transition Dynamics in City Regions: A Qualitative Modeling Perspective

Accelerating Transition Dynamics in City Regions: A Qualitative Modeling Perspective

Political Competition, Path Dependence, and the Strategy of Sustainable Energy Transitions

An agent-based model of farmer behaviour to explain the limited adaptability of Flemish agriculture

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