Modelling regional scale biofuel scenarios – a case study for India

Abstract

Biofuel initiatives in India have gained momentum with the national biofuel policy targeting 20% blending of both petrol and diesel by 2017. Most of India's biofuel plans revolve around using sugarcane for bioethanol and jatropha for biodiesel production. This study, taking the southern Indian state of Karnataka as an example, aims at estimating the potential to achieve policy targets. The study spatially analyses land-use change owing to biofuel expansion and its effects on food production. We used an integrated modelling framework to simulate land-use change and bioenergy production under two scenarios -Industrial Economy (IE) and Agricultural Economy (AE). Results indicate that meeting the 20% blending target is a challenging goal to achieve under both scenarios. Bioethanol requirements can be nearly fulfilled (88% under IE and 93% under AE) because of sugarcane expansion. However, biodiesel demands cannot be fulfilled using only degraded lands as currently planned in India, but additional agricultural land (3-4% of the total cropland) will be required for jatrophabased biodiesel production. Food production will not be directly impacted until 2025, because the largest source of additional land could be short-and long-term fallows. We conclude that conservation oriented initiatives, such as water harvesting and energy conservation measures can increase productivities of biofuel crops and reduce fuel demands, respectively. State support and Clean Development Mechanism opportunities can enhance economic incentives for energy cropping. Therefore, a simultaneous and multipronged approach is needed to accommodate food and fuel demands in India.

Integrated Modeling of Land and Water Resources in two African Catchments

“…It has been applied, among others, in Indonesia to simulate land focusing on socio-economic and environmental effects of different strategies of resource use (Priess et al, 2007); in India to analyse trade-offs of land-use change with regard to the production of bio-energy (Das et al, 2012); in Mongolia to study regional land dynamics with a strong focus on the linked impacts on water resources Schweitzer et al, 2011), and in Ethiopia to simulate land-use suitability based on multiple socio-environmental factors .…”

Simulating regional winter wheat yields using input data of different spatial resolution

“…The analysis of yield gaps and the search for ways to ecologically intensify the world's staple food production systems are key areas of current environmental research (Bennett et al, 2012;Lobell et al, 2009;Neumann et al, 2010). Also the increasing competition between bioenergy and food production for land and resources demands for model-based yield predictions for energy cropping scenario analysis (Das et al, 2012;Miguez et al, 2012;VanLoocke et al, 2012). Crop modelling as a tool to predict crop yields under assumed climate and land use scenarios is widely accepted (White et al, 2011); the predictive power of models is currently under investigation, as their prediction error adds to the range of uncertainty produced by global scale climate models and the down-scaling procedures required to drive small-scale crop simulation models (Déqué et al, 2007;Olesen et al, 2007;Zhang et al, 2011).…”

The economics and greenhouse gas balance of land conversion to Jatropha: the case of Tanzania

“…Similarly, converting these degraded areas to Jatropha plantations was assumed not to trigger significant losses of ecosystem carbon stock. Many countries, including India and China, consider Jatropha as potential contributor to attain renewable energy targets (Sang & Zhu, 2011;Das et al, 2012). However, the claim that Jatropha can produce significant amounts of oil in such degraded areas has no solid scientific ground (Achten et al, 2008;Das et al, 2012).…”

“…Many countries, including India and China, consider Jatropha as potential contributor to attain renewable energy targets (Sang & Zhu, 2011;Das et al, 2012). However, the claim that Jatropha can produce significant amounts of oil in such degraded areas has no solid scientific ground (Achten et al, 2008;Das et al, 2012). Therefore, massive expansion and investments hold socio-economic and environmental risks (Achten et al, 2007.…”