Modelling Potential Biophysical Impacts of Climate Change in the Atlantic Forest: Closing the Gap to Identify Vulnerabilities in Brazil

Follador, Marco; Viezzer, Jennifer; Egler, Mariana; Becher, Martin; Hach, Lukas; Pereira, Virgílio; Rocha, André Medeiros; Vaz, Ciro; Vieira, Thiago Bernardi; Amoni, Melina; Hartzell, Samantha

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-56946-8_3

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 49 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The three CMIP6 models we chose have ECS values that are relatively low (2.6C, MIROC6), medium (3C, BCC‐CSM2‐MR) and high (4.8C, CNRM‐ESM2‐1) among the choices available on WorldClim v.2.1 on August 2020 (ECS values from Hausfather, 2019). We included HadGEM2‐ES and MIROC5 (CMIP5 models) because they have been commonly used and extensively tested in South America and Brazil (Chou et al., 2014; Follador et al., 2018; Yin et al., 2013), thus facilitating integration of our results with previous knowledge. The derived bioclimatic variables were used to assess the effects of climate change in the year 2050 (average for 2041–2060, Supporting Information Figures S2 and S3) on two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5; Fick & Hijmans, 2017; Hijmans et al., 2005).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected impacts of climate and land use changes on the habitat of Atlantic Forest plants in Brazil

Leão

Reinhardt

Lughadha

2021

Global Ecol Biogeogr

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Aim To provide novel evidence on the average impact of climate and land use changes on habitat suitability for tropical plants and to test previous conclusions on the relative importance of these two drivers in shaping future availability of habitat for tropical plant species. Location Brazil’s Atlantic Forest domain. Time period Plant occurrences recorded between 1960 and 2014. Baseline climate from 1960 to 2000 and land use from 2015. Projected scenarios of climate for 2041–2060 and land use for 2050. Major taxa studied Angiosperms. Methods We modelled the habitat suitability of 2,232 species of angiosperms from the Atlantic Forest domain, endemic to Brazil, and estimated how future climate and land use may affect species‐level habitat suitability under a moderate and a business‐as‐usual scenario for the year 2050. Results Our results suggest that climate change alone will, surprisingly, have only a modest negative impact on the mean habitat suitability, decreasing it by 2% (median = −5 to −7%, variation associated with scenarios). Land use change alone had a more consistent negative impact on habitat suitability, causing mean and median reductions of 4 to 6%. When the effects of climate and land use are combined, the mean habitat suitability was reduced by 4% (median = −9 to −11%). Main conclusions The combined impacts of climate and land use changes were substantial, although smaller than expected. Habitat suitability decreased for most species, but it increased substantially for some species, suggesting that the distribution of impacts across species is markedly right skewed. The impacts were typically detrimental to small‐ranged species and neutral or beneficial to widespread species. Land use change rather than climate change will likely cause more losses to the habitat of Atlantic Forest plant species within the next several decades.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected impacts of climate and land use changes on the habitat of Atlantic Forest plants in Brazil

Leão

Reinhardt

Lughadha

2021

Global Ecol Biogeogr

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The Dense Ombrophilous and Semideciduous Seasonal forests are seriously threatened. Estimates point towards their intense geographic reduction due to climatic changes, which pose even more risks on highly vulnerable ecosystems (Follador, 2016).…”

Section: Rarity Threat and Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental Response of Dinoponera lucida Emery 1901 (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), an Endemic Threatened Species of the Atlantic Forest Central Corridor

2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Endemic species of Atlantic Forest Central Corridor may have evolved under adverse climate conditions, but their response to modern climate change is unclear. The aim of this study is to evaluate the response of the endemic and endangered ant species Dinoponera lucida to biotics and abiotics factors based on three scales: ecological factors inside forest fragment, physical attributes of landscape and climatic variables of the assessed region. Data collection took place in a representative selection of forest fragments in the region where the species is distributed in. Pitfalls were used to collect samples and to assure the presence and absence of the species in the site. We also checked the abundance of food resources and applied a hemispherical photography technique to measure shading inside the fragment, in loco. Landscape attributes data and climatic predictors were collected through geoprocessing techniques. All predictors were associated with binary “presence” and “absence” data based applied in logistic models. There was no significant response to environmental aspects within the fragment or to landscape, but there was strong and peculiar response to climatic variables such as temperature and rainfall. Accordingly, D. lucida presents a restricted realized niche, a feature shared among many endangered species that can disappear due to displacement and to habitat loss caused by climate and environmental changes. This species presents all the criteria necessary to be considered as rare, which is a controversial subject with political implications for Espírito Santo state, and makes D. lucida the ideal target for urgent conservation strategies.

show abstract

“…Climate change influences all economic sectors, particularly the agricultural sector, as the most climate-dependent sector [8][9][10]. Climate change affects agriculture productivity through rainfall variations, changes in the planting and harvesting dates, temperature rises, and higher evapotranspiration rates [11,12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Climatic Factors on Yields of Pistachio, Mango, and Bananas in Iran

2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of climatic variables (minimum temperature, maximum temperature, average precipitation, and precipitation deviation) on the yields of pistachio, banana, and mango in cold, hot–arid, hot–humid, and temperate–humid climates using the Just–Pope function. The Just–Pope function is a relatively new approach in this context. The most effective variables were identified by stepwise regression and the Feiverson algorithm. Data were collected for the period of 1998–2020 and were tested for stationarity. Finally, the coefficients of the Just–Pope function were estimated for the three crops in the four climates. The results showed that the variables affecting pistachio yield were different in each type of climate. Most variables were effective in warm and dry areas, while cropping area, production trend, and lag were effective in cold regions and in hot and humid areas; the maximum deviation and minimum temperature, production lag, cropping area, and production function were significant in hot and dry regions at the 90% level. The Just–Pope function for pistachio, mango, and banana showed that the impact of temperature and average rainfall was region-specific. Based on the results, a 1% increase in rainfall can increase the banana yield up to 0.032 ton/ha. As Iran experiences extensive climatic fluctuations, horticulturists are faced with difficult conditions. Such practices as the use of cultivars that are resistant to temperature and rainfall variations in the regions in order to alleviate the risk of yield variations in orchards are recommended.

show abstract

Modelling Potential Biophysical Impacts of Climate Change in the Atlantic Forest: Closing the Gap to Identify Vulnerabilities in Brazil

Cited by 3 publications

References 49 publications

Projected impacts of climate and land use changes on the habitat of Atlantic Forest plants in Brazil

Projected impacts of climate and land use changes on the habitat of Atlantic Forest plants in Brazil

Environmental Response of Dinoponera lucida Emery 1901 (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), an Endemic Threatened Species of the Atlantic Forest Central Corridor

Influence of Climatic Factors on Yields of Pistachio, Mango, and Bananas in Iran

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About