Modelling pest dynamics under uncertainty in pest detection: the case of the red palm weevil

Abstract

A common complication in invasive pest management is that the infectious state of the host can be wrongly assessed, leading to biases in the estimation of the prevalence of the pest and on the efficacy of mitigation actions. We designed a multievent model that accommodates uncertainty on host state to investigate the dynamics of the infestation of Phoenix canariensis by the invasive Rhynchophorus ferrugineus. Since 2011, the council of Palma city (Mallorca Island, Spain) applied preventive, curative and destructive treatments to public Phoenix palms. A year later awareness campaigns focused on every palm owner in an attempt to control the plague. We estimated the probability of infestation and assessed the efficiency of mitigation measures, awareness campaigns and palm-dependent covariates. Our results show that infestation probabilities were higher for palms infested in the previous year than for healthy palms and it decreased substantially over time as a results of mitigation measures and awareness campaigns. Palms surrounded by treated palms had a lower probability of being infested than palms surrounded by untreated palms, i.e. private palms before awareness campaigns implementation. Our results highlight the key role of awareness campaigns and public participation for invasive species control.

Individual Palm Tree Detection Using Deep Learning on RGB Imagery to Support Tree Inventory

“…Moreover, the Phoenix palms localization across a diversity of scenes is important as the probability of RPW infestation can be influenced by the palm population and palm ownership. According to [74], in the Spanish city of Palma de Mallorca, the presence of infested date palms belonging to private owners favored the infestation of close-by, public canary palms at the start of the pest outbreak. Hence, a geospatial database of Phoenix palms supports actions that intend to prevent, inspect, and intervene against the pest.…”

Recent Trends in the Early Detection of the Invasive Red Palm Weevil,Rhynchophorus ferrugineus(Olivier)

“…Currently, the integrated management strategies adopted against RPW include early detection of infested palms, pheromone mass trapping, preventive and curative chemical treatment, removal of severely infested palms, and phytosanitary measures (Figure 2) [24]. Phytosanitary measures, public participation in control, and awareness campaigns reduce the probabilities of RPW infestation [28]. Any successful pest invasion passes through three important stages: introduction, establishment, and spread.…”