Modelling of Uncertainty in Minimising the Cost of Inventory for Disaster Relief

Abstract

Natural disasters -and even those caused by people -are largely unpredictable. So disasters need to be researched and their impact fully understood, so that the aid supplies required to ensure survival during and after disaster events will be available. The member states of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) are the countries of interest for this paper, as insufficient research has been conducted into inventory pre-positioning for disaster response in these countries. It is vital to anticipate the needs of disaster victims in potential disasters. These needs are evaluated according to the types and amounts of aid supplies required. This paper proposes a stochastic inventory model that can be applied in a generic way to any SADC country, providing a means to improve disaster preparedness through keeping aid supplies in pre-positioned facilities in the SADC region, at reasonable and affordable cost. OPSOMMINGNatuurlike en mensgemaakte rampe is grootliks onvoorspelbaar. Gevolglik moet rampe nagevors en hul impak ten volle begryp word, sodat noodvoorrade wat benodig word vir oorlewing doeltreffend beplan kan word vir aanwending tydens en na rampgebeure. Die lede van die Suid-Afrikaanse Ontwikkelingsgemeenskap (SAOG) is die lande van belang vir hierdie artikel omrede navorsing oor voorraadhouding vir rampreaksie in hierdie betrokke lande tot nog toe onvoldoende was. Dit is noodsaaklik om doeltreffend in die behoeftes van rampslagoffers te voorsien. Hierdie behoeftes word beoordeel na aanleiding van die aard en hoeveelhede van noodvoorrade wat benodig mag word in ramptoestande. Hierdie artikel stel 'n stochastiese voorraadmodel voor vir toepassing op 'n generiese wyse in enige SAOG land, om sodoende 'n metode te verskaf om rampvoorbereiding te verbeter deur die opgaar van noodvoorrade in vooraf-geïdentifiseerde fasiliteite binne die SAOG, teen redelike en bekostigbare koste.

Decision Support in Supply Chain Management for Disaster Relief in Somalia

“…The majority of favourable solutions to disaster management problems are supported by mathematical methods such as operations research [13]. This approach is an appropriate tool for planning the preparedness, response and recovery phases of disaster management, due to its ability to handle uncertainty by means of probabilistic scenarios which represent disasters and their outcomes [14,15,16,17].…”

“…Various models have been developed and applied to the SADC countries [13,20]. VanWyk et al [13] apply a stochastic inventory model to the SADC countries to obtain the quantities of aid supplies to keep at an acceptable minimum cost.…”

“…VanWyk et al [13] apply a stochastic inventory model to the SADC countries to obtain the quantities of aid supplies to keep at an acceptable minimum cost. Van Wyk et al [22] developed a mixed integer decision model which selects sub-plans to supply a country with immediate disaster relief.…”

“…However, the inventory carrying cost will vary according to each individual warehouse, but for testing purposes it is assumed that inventory carrying cost equals 25% of product value per annum [13]. The shortage cost represents the amount of people who will be affected if an aid supply is not available during and after the disaster event.…”