Modelling of Meteo-Droughts

Statistička Analiza Meteoroloških Suša Za Sremsku Mitrovicu I Kikindu

“…The meteo-drought, Z (day · 0 C), is defined as the product of drought duration, T (days), and mean air temperature over the drought duration y ( 0 C) [2]:…”

“…Drought duration of 25 and more days is adopted as a critical threshold, for which the distribution of meteo-droughts is estimated and design droughts with different probabilities of occurrence are derived. According to this method, the stochastic process of the meteo-droughts is defined with 10 characteristic parameters [2]: meteo-drought Z, drought duration T, mean air temperature y throughout the drought duration, beginning of meteo-drought τb, end of meteo-drought τe, mid-point τ = (τb + τe)/2, ordinal number of meteo-drought in growing season n (n = 1, 2, 3,...), total number of meteo-droughts in growing season k (k = 0, 1, 2,...), the greatest meteo-drought in growing season sup{Zn}, time of occurrence of the greatest meteo-drought τsupZ. Occurence of meteo-droughts in a growing season and their describing parameters are shown schematically in Figure 1.…”

“…(from April 1 st to September 30 th ) for two meteorological stations in Vojvodina: Sremska Mitrovica and Kikinda. The applied method is primarily intended for the needs of agriculture and meteorology and it was developed by Professor Zelenhasić [2], [3].…”

Methodology for deriving synthetic meteorological droughts and its application for Budapest

“…The analysis is based on precipitation and temperature data published on the website of the Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ) for the period of 1901-2000 ("CLIMATE DATA SERIES / BUDAPEST," n.d.). The applied method is primarily intended for the needs of agriculture and meteorology, and it was developed by Fabian and Zelenhasic (Fabian, 2015;Fabian and Zelenhasic, 2016). The methodology is based on the stochastic processes and probabilistic assessment of the number and magnitude of droughts, where the drought is considered to be a consequence of a combined effect of prolonged dry periods and high air temperatures.…”

“…The original methodology by Fabian and Zelenhasic (Fabian and Zelenhasic, 2016) proposed three probability functions to describe the magnitude of meteorological droughts: (1) double exponential distribution with two parameters, (2) adjusted empirical distribution, and (3) polynomial of degree 4. In this paper, a modification of the methodology is adopted so that the statistical analysis of the maximum meteorological droughts is performed by means of the peaks-overthreshold (POT) method (Plavšić, 2007;Todorovic and Zelenhasic, 1970;Petrović, 1998, 1997), which considers all extreme values of the meteorological droughts that exceed a given threshold.…”