Modelling migration in birds: competition's role in maintaining individual variation

Kikuchi, David W.; Reinhold, Klaus

doi:10.1098/rspb.2021.0323

Cited by 4 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 84 publications

(96 reference statements)

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“…Our overall ICC of 0.414 was similar to the migration repeatability estimate from an earlier meta-analysis (ICC = ~0.46 ;Holtmann et al, 2017). Given the spread of migratory timings that is typical for migratory bird populations (Kikuchi & Reinhold, 2021), our findings suggest that consistent individual differences in arrival at, and departure from, breeding and non-breeding grounds is a common feature of avian migration. Population-level shifts in phenology of many migratory species are common at present (Gordo, 2007;Gunnarsson & Tómasson, 2011), and these could arise from individuals responding directionally to changing environmental conditions and/or by generational changes in the frequency of individuals with different timings within populations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Individual repeatability of avian migration phenology: A systematic review and meta‐analysis

Franklin

Nicoll

Butler

et al. 2022

Journal of Animal Ecology

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Changes in phenology and distribution are being widely reported for many migratory species in response to shifting environmental conditions. Understanding these changes and the situations in which they occur can be aided by understanding consistent individual differences in phenology and distribution and the situations in which consistency varies in strength or detectability. Studies tracking the same individuals over consecutive years are increasingly reporting migratory timings to be a repeatable trait, suggesting that flexible individual responses to environmental conditions may contribute little to population‐level changes in phenology and distribution. However, how this varies across species and sexes, across the annual cycle and in relation to study (tracking method, study design) and/or ecosystem characteristics is not yet clear. Here, we take advantage of the growing number of publications in movement ecology to perform a phylogenetic multilevel meta‐analysis of repeatability estimates for avian migratory timings to investigate these questions. Of 2,433 reviewed studies, 54 contained suitable information for meta‐analysis, resulting in 177 effect sizes from 47 species. Individual repeatability of avian migratory timings averaged 0.414 (95% confidence interval: 0.3–0.5) across landbirds, waterbirds and seabirds, suggesting consistent individual differences in migratory timings is a common feature of migratory systems. Timing of departure from the non‐breeding grounds was more repeatable than timings of arrival at or departure from breeding grounds, suggesting that conditions encountered on migratory journeys and outcome of breeding attempts can influence individual variation. Population‐level shifts in phenology could arise through individual timings changing with environmental conditions and/or through shifts in the numbers of individuals with different timings. Our findings suggest that, in addition to identifying the conditions associated with individual variation in phenology, exploring the causes of between‐individual variation will be key in predicting future rates and directions of changes in migratory timings. We therefore encourage researchers to report the within‐ and between‐ individual variance components underpinning the reported repeatability estimates to aid interpretation of migration behaviour. In addition, the lack of studies in the tropics means that levels of repeatability in less strongly seasonal environments are not yet clear.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Individual repeatability of avian migration phenology: A systematic review and meta‐analysis

Franklin

Nicoll

Butler

et al. 2022

Journal of Animal Ecology

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“…Increasing incidence of the residence transition around the age of first reproduction suggests that residence may maximize chances of territory establishment or offset increased survival costs of reproduction in males. Thus, increasing competition for breeding territories likely increases the fitness benefit of residence (Kikuchi & Reinhold, 2021; Kokko, 1999; Sirot & Touzalin, 2014), suggesting that population structure may play a role in determining migratory behaviour. Further studies are required to empirically investigate the relationships between migratory phenotype, recruitment, and population density.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Con Clus Ionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sex and size shape the ontogeny of partial migration

Witczak,

Kormann,

Schaub

et al. 2024

Journal of Animal Ecology

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The arrival‐time hypothesis of partial seasonal migration proposes that over‐winter residence is driven by reproductive benefits of early presence on the breeding grounds. Thus, it predicts increased occurrence of residence at reproductive age. In contrast, the body size hypothesis proposes age‐independent benefits of residence for large individuals, who should exhibit greater winter tolerance. Despite different expectations in age patterns for the two hypotheses in long‐lived partially migrant species, there is little empirical work investigating the ontogeny of migratory phenotypic expression, that is the expression of residence or migration. We investigated the influence of age, sex and body size on migratory phenotype throughout ontogeny (from first year to early adulthood) in a long‐lived partially migrant species, the red kite Milvus milvus. We GPS‐tracked 311 individuals tagged as juveniles and 70 individuals tagged as adults over multiple years, yielding 881 observed annual cycles. From this data, we estimated age‐dependent probabilities of the transition to residence and of survival in migrants and residents using a Bayesian multistate capture‐recapture model, as well as the probability of resuming migration once resident. We then calculated the resulting proportion of residents per age class. In both sexes, almost all juveniles migrated in their first winter, after which the probability of becoming resident gradually increased with age class to approximately 0.3 in adults (>3 calendar years). A size effect in third calendar year females suggests that large females adopt residence earlier in life than small females. The transition from residence back to migration only occurred with a probability of 0.15 across all resident individuals. In addition, survival was notably reduced in adult male migrants compared to adult male residents. These results are largely consistent with the arrival‐time and body size hypotheses, simultaneously. Our results reveal a plastic, yet primarily directional within‐individual change in migratory phenotype towards more residence with increasing age, varying between sexes and between individuals of different size. This study highlights that different individual characteristics can jointly shape the ontogeny of migratory behaviour and result in complex within‐population patterns and persistence of migratory phenotypes.

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“…Another source of negative frequency-dependent selection may be competition for resources. Theoretical examinations of the evolution of costly investments into competition have shown that negative frequency-dependent selection can lead to the maintenance of genetic variation under many environmental conditions (Wolf et al 2007(Wolf et al , 2008Baldauf et al 2014, Kikuchi & Reinhold 2021. According to such theoretical results, negative frequency-dependent selection is especially likely if individuals compete most strongly with individuals in the population that have similar traits, and less with dissimilar individuals.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similar to Baldauf et al (2014), we examine the evolution of costly competitive traits in an asexually reproducing population, but use several different resource distributions to examine under which conditions temporally stable or fluctuating polymorphisms are produced. Our main aim is to test whether the fluctuating trait values observed by Baldauf et al (2014) and the stable maintenance of large trait variance observed by Kikuchi & Reinhold (2021) rely on the specific conditions assumed in their models or are likely to occur under a wide array of resource distributions, i.e., ecological conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of individual variation in a competitive trait: a theoretical analysis

Reinhold,

Eigentler,

Kikuchi

2023

Preprint

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When competitive traits are costly, negative frequency-dependence can maintain genetic variance. Most theoretical studies examining this question assume binary polymorphisms, yet most trait variation in wild populations is continuous. We propose that continuous trait variation can result from continuous variation in resource quality and that the shape of the resource distribution determines trait maintenance. We used an individual-based model to test which conditions favour the stable maintenance of variation and which cause temporal fluctuations in trait values. This approach, inspired by contrasting outcomes of previous studies, clearly showed the decisive role played by the shape of resource distributions. Under extreme conditions, like the absence of resource variation or with very scarce resources for weak competitors, traits evolved to a single non-competitive or highly competitive strategy, respectively. Some distributions led to strong temporal fluctuations on trait values, whereas others led to the maintenance of large standing variation in competitive traits together with stable mean trait values. Our results thus explain the contradicting outcomes of previous theoretical studies and at the same time provide hypotheses to explain the maintenance of genetic variation and individual differences. We also suggest how the proposed effects of resource variation on trait maintenance can be tested empirically.

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Modelling migration in birds: competition's role in maintaining individual variation

Cited by 4 publications

References 84 publications

Individual repeatability of avian migration phenology: A systematic review and meta‐analysis

Individual repeatability of avian migration phenology: A systematic review and meta‐analysis

Sex and size shape the ontogeny of partial migration

Evolution of individual variation in a competitive trait: a theoretical analysis

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